{"id":183097,"date":"2021-05-12T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-12T07:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?p=183097"},"modified":"2021-05-11T16:00:28","modified_gmt":"2021-05-11T23:00:28","slug":"california-population-decline-drop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/commentary\/2021\/05\/california-population-decline-drop\/","title":{"rendered":"La poblaci\u00f3n de California limita la tendencia a largo plazo"},"content":{"rendered":"

California and national news organizations went a little berserk last week when the state Department of Finance announced<\/a> that the state\u2019s estimated population declined a bit in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overwrought articles made much of California\u2019s having lost population for the first time in recorded history, with multiple references to the state\u2019s reputation for steady \u2014 and sometimes spectacular \u2014 population growth since statehood was achieved in 1850 and its loss of one congressional seat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apparently, those who treated the population numbers as an apocalyptic revelation hadn\u2019t been paying attention because California had been heading toward zero or even negative population growth for at least a quarter-century, as those of us who track demographic trends had often noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De hecho, el Census Bureau last December<\/a> estimated that during the 2019-20 fiscal year that ended last June 30, the state\u2019s population had declined \u2014 a report largely ignored by the state\u2019s media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest media coverage also overemphasized the role that the COVID-19 played in the state\u2019s population decline. The overall loss was pegged at 182,083 and pandemic-related deaths were responsible for a little over a quarter of that decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, even if COVID-19 had not reared its ugly head, California would still have lost population due to long-term demographic trends \u2014 declining births, increasing deaths due to the aging of the population, a much-slowed rate of foreign immigration and losses in state-to-state migrations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California has been a net loser in the latter factor for at least two decades, with more people moving to other states \u2014 Texas the No. 1 destination \u2014 than we gain from other states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Instituto de Pol\u00edticas P\u00fablicas de California delved into that phenomenon<\/a> just a few days before the Department of Finance released its new population numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDuring the 2010s about 6.1 million people moved from California to other states, while only 4.9 million people moved to California from other parts of the country,\u201d PPIC reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPeople who move to California are different from those who move out. In general, those who move here are more likely to be working age, to be employed, and to earn high wages \u2014 and are less likely to be in poverty \u2014 than those who move away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThose who move to California also tend to have higher education levels than those who move out, an especially important factor given the state\u2019s strong need for college graduates. Notably, this gain in educated residents is concentrated among young college graduates (generally, adults in their 20s) looking for opportunities as they start their careers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 2010 and 2019, PPIC calculated from federal census data, California had a net gain of 154,500 adults with college educations from other states, and net loss of 777,400 with high school educations or less. Superficially, that appears to be a positive exchange, but it should be troubling because the state has a chronic shortage of skilled blue-collar workers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While, as PPIC notes, California\u2019s high housing costs are a big factor in pushing people out of the state, a lack of construction workers is a major factor in our inability to build enough housing. The syndrome also applies to many other blue-collar fields that are vital to our daily lives, such as auto mechanics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demographics, it\u2019s been said, are destiny. Whether California is gaining or losing population is less important than whether we will continue to evolve into a highly stratified society with a relatively small, but very affluent, overclass, a shrinking middle class, and a huge underclass mired in structural poverty.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California lost population last year, but it’s not a sudden event. Rather, the state has been heading that way for decades. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":73,"featured_media":97061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","apple_news_api_created_at":"2021-05-12T07:01:05Z","apple_news_api_id":"0ec50832-1d0b-4d73-ba0e-f51f4e77be6e","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2021-05-12T07:01:05Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/ADsUIMh0LTXO6DvUfTne-bg","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_spanish_translation_id":0,"_is_translation":false,"_newspack_byline_active":false,"_newspack_byline":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"newspack_content_restriction_is_exempt":false,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58,63],"tags":[900,40117,2932],"legislator":[],"bill":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"coauthors":[4174],"class_list":["post-183097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-dan-walters","tag-census","tag-commentary","tag-ppic","entry"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nCalifornia population drop caps long trend - CalMatters<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"California lost population last year, but it's not a sudden decline. 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Comenz\u00f3 a cubrir la pol\u00edtica de California en 1975, justo cuando Jerry Brown comenz\u00f3 su primer per\u00edodo como gobernador, y comenz\u00f3 a escribir su columna en 1981, primero para Sacramento Union durante tres a\u00f1os, luego para The Sacramento Bee durante 33 a\u00f1os y ahora para CalMatters desde 2017. Dan tambi\u00e9n es autor o coautor de dos libros sobre California, \u201cThe New California: Facing the 21st Century\u201d y \u201cThe Third House: Lobbyists, Money and Power in Sacramento\u201d. Es un invitado frecuente en programas de radio y ocasionalmente aparece en la televisi\u00f3n nacional, comentando temas de California. Walters comenz\u00f3 su carrera en 1960 en el Humboldt Times en Eureka, California, un mes antes de cumplir 17 a\u00f1os, primero como asistente de redacci\u00f3n y luego como reportero de la polic\u00eda. Habiendo encontrado su vocaci\u00f3n, no s\u00f3lo rechaz\u00f3 una beca universitaria de National Merit, sino que abandon\u00f3 la escuela secundaria al carecer de una clase requerida (ir\u00f3nicamente, educaci\u00f3n c\u00edvica) para calificar para un diploma. Antes de mudarse a Sacramento para cubrir pol\u00edtica, fue editor en jefe de tres peque\u00f1os diarios. Tiene dos hijas adultas y tres nietos.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/DanCALmatters"],"birthDate":"1943-10-10","gender":"Male","jobTitle":"Columnist","worksFor":"CalMatters.org","url":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/author\/dan-walters\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","canonical_url":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/commentary\/2021\/05\/california-population-decline-drop\/","smart_links":{"inbound":0,"outbound":0},"traffic_boost_suggestions_count":0,"meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"California population drop caps long trend","url":"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/commentary\/2021\/05\/california-population-decline-drop\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/commentary\/2021\/05\/california-population-decline-drop\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?resize=60%2C60&ssl=1","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?fit=2000%2C1277&ssl=1"},"articleSection":"Dan Walters","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Daniel Walters"}],"creator":["Dan Walters"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"CalMatters","logo":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/calmatters-logo_2x.png"},"keywords":["census","commentary","ppic"],"dateCreated":"2021-05-12T07:01:00Z","datePublished":"2021-05-12T07:01:00Z","dateModified":"2021-05-12T07:01:00Z"},"rendered":"<meta name=\"parsely-title\" content=\"California population drop caps long trend\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-link\" content=\"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/commentary\/2021\/05\/california-population-decline-drop\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-type\" content=\"post\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-image-url\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?resize=60%2C60&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-pub-date\" content=\"2021-05-12T07:01:00Z\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-section\" content=\"Dan Walters\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-tags\" content=\"census,commentary,ppic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-author\" content=\"Dan Walters\" \/>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/calmatters.org\/p.js"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?fit=2000%2C1277&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/73"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=183097"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183097\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":183279,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183097\/revisions\/183279"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=183097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=183097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=183097"},{"taxonomy":"legislator","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/legislator?post=183097"},{"taxonomy":"bill","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bill?post=183097"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=183097"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=183097"}],"curies":[{"name":"Gracias","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}