{"id":309977,"date":"2023-08-13T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-13T07:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?p=309977"},"modified":"2023-08-09T15:54:40","modified_gmt":"2023-08-09T22:54:40","slug":"las-perspectivas-economicas-mejoran-en-california","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/commentary\/2023\/08\/economy-outlook-improves-california-muddy\/","title":{"rendered":"Si bien las perspectivas econ\u00f3micas de EE. UU. mejoran, las de California siguen siendo turbias y mediocres."},"content":{"rendered":"

A finales del mes pasado, la Reserva Federal anunci\u00f3 el \u00faltimo aumento incremental de su tasa de inter\u00e9s clave, llev\u00e1ndolo al nivel m\u00e1s alto en 22 a\u00f1os<\/a>, mientras contin\u00faa luchando contra lo que llama inflaci\u00f3n persistente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El aumento, una cuarta parte de 1%, renov\u00f3 el debate entre economistas y pol\u00edticos sobre si las acciones antiinflacionarias de la Reserva Federal desacelerar\u00e1n la econom\u00eda hacia lo que se denomina una "aterrizaje suave<\/a>\u201d, o provocar una recesi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La recesi\u00f3n que muchos economistas pensaban que ya habr\u00eda ocurrido no ha aparecido, lo que ha provocado que quienes no hab\u00edan visto una recesi\u00f3n en el horizonte digan \u201cya te lo dije\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPara gran disgusto de quienes han estado prediciendo lo contrario, la econom\u00eda estadounidense ha seguido creciendo obstinadamente y 2023 se perfila como un a\u00f1o mejor que 2022\u201d, dijo uno de los optimistas, el economista de California. Christopher Thornberg<\/a> escribi\u00f3 recientemente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEsto no quiere decir que no reconozcamos se\u00f1ales de estr\u00e9s en la econom\u00eda impulsadas por las tasas de inter\u00e9s m\u00e1s altas y el reciente brote de inflaci\u00f3n\u201d, continu\u00f3 Thornberg. \u201cM\u00e1s bien, nunca hemos considerado que estos problemas alcancen el nivel de ser sist\u00e9micos, dado que fueron causados por lo mismo que ha mantenido el gasto de los consumidores sobrealimentado: el est\u00edmulo excesivo arrojado a la econom\u00eda durante la pandemia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

"El mayor riesgo, como lo hemos visto, siempre fue el ajuste indebido por parte de la Reserva Federal, que se implement\u00f3 en respuesta a su pecado original de flexibilizaci\u00f3n excesiva\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, la moneda econ\u00f3mica tiene dos caras: una basada en los n\u00fameros que adoran los economistas y la otra en las preocupaciones, ciertamente no cient\u00edficas, de los ciudadanos comunes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un reciente Encuesta del Instituto de Pol\u00edticas P\u00fablicas de California<\/a> descubri\u00f3 que los californianos creen abrumadoramente que se avecinan tiempos econ\u00f3micos malos, bas\u00e1ndose en parte en experiencias con la inflaci\u00f3n en vivienda, alimentos, combustible y otros gastos de vida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esas expectativas amargas pueden ser algo m\u00e1s que una mera emoci\u00f3n. Si bien el pa\u00eds en su conjunto parece estar bastante bien, como nos recuerda casi a diario el presidente Joe Biden en previsi\u00f3n de una campa\u00f1a de reelecci\u00f3n el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo, la econom\u00eda de California est\u00e1 m\u00e1s o menos bien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

california tasa de desempleo en junio<\/a> fue de 4,6%, lo que no suena mal, ciertamente mucho m\u00e1s bajo que cuando la econom\u00eda del estado se cerr\u00f3 durante la pandemia de COVID-19, lo que llev\u00f3 la tasa de desempleo a m\u00e1s de 16%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, fue m\u00e1s alto que el a\u00f1o anterior y, esto es bastante preocupante, fue el El segundo m\u00e1s alto de cualquier estado<\/a> al 5,4% de Nevada, y m\u00e1s del doble del 1,8%, el m\u00e1s bajo del pa\u00eds, de New Hampshire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los dem\u00e1s \u00edndices econ\u00f3micos de California son igualmente d\u00e9biles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Oficina Federal de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico<\/a> En junio se inform\u00f3 que el producto interno bruto de California (el total de bienes y servicios) en el primer trimestre fue uno de los de crecimiento m\u00e1s lento del pa\u00eds, con 1,21 billones de yuanes, aproximadamente un tercio del crecimiento observado en los estados rivales Texas (31 billones de yuanes) y Florida (3,51 billones de yuanes). Otros estados alcanzaron un m\u00e1ximo de 12,41 billones de yuanes en Dakota del Norte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El informe trimestral de la BEA sobre el crecimiento de los ingresos personales fue igualmente mediocre. A nivel nacional, aument\u00f3 en 5,11 TP3T, pero en California apenas fue un peque\u00f1o detalle, con 0,71 TP3T, muy cerca del m\u00ednimo. Texas registr\u00f3 un crecimiento de los ingresos personales de 6,71 TP3T y Florida de 7,91 TP3T.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El crecimiento an\u00e9mico del ingreso personal tiene un impacto en el mundo real cuando intenta hacer frente a la inflaci\u00f3n que todav\u00eda afecta a las familias de California y tambi\u00e9n es una de las razones subyacentes por las que el estado est\u00e1 experimentando disminuciones en los impuestos sobre la renta personal y Los d\u00e9ficits presupuestarios resultantes de miles de millones de d\u00f3lares<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Citando una Perspectivas econ\u00f3micas \u201cparticularmente confusas\u201d<\/a>El analista de presupuesto de la Legislatura, Gabe Petek, cree que el estado enfrenta mayores d\u00e9ficits presupuestarios<\/a> que el gobernador Gavin Newsom y los l\u00edderes legislativos han incluido en su nuevo presupuesto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La situaci\u00f3n es igualmente confusa para los presupuestos familiares de casi 40 millones de californianos.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With personal income growth stagnant and prices still rising, California’s economy is trailing many national trends moving the other direction.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":73,"featured_media":220699,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","apple_news_api_created_at":"2023-08-13T07:01:05Z","apple_news_api_id":"1f0b2aac-340f-45c9-be40-1c8fc187ef88","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2023-08-13T07:01:06Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AHwsqrDQPRcm-QByPwYfviA","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_spanish_translation_id":0,"_is_translation":false,"_newspack_byline_active":false,"_newspack_byline":"","newspack_content_restriction_is_exempt":false,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58,63],"tags":[40117,49666,1367],"legislator":[],"bill":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"coauthors":[4174],"class_list":["post-309977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-dan-walters","tag-commentary","tag-economic-inequality","tag-economy","entry"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nThese indicators muddy outlook for California's economic future - 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Comenz\u00f3 a cubrir la pol\u00edtica de California en 1975, justo cuando Jerry Brown comenz\u00f3 su primer per\u00edodo como gobernador, y comenz\u00f3 a escribir su columna en 1981, primero para Sacramento Union durante tres a\u00f1os, luego para The Sacramento Bee durante 33 a\u00f1os y ahora para CalMatters desde 2017. Dan tambi\u00e9n es autor o coautor de dos libros sobre California, \u201cThe New California: Facing the 21st Century\u201d y \u201cThe Third House: Lobbyists, Money and Power in Sacramento\u201d. Es un invitado frecuente en programas de radio y ocasionalmente aparece en la televisi\u00f3n nacional, comentando temas de California. Walters comenz\u00f3 su carrera en 1960 en el Humboldt Times en Eureka, California, un mes antes de cumplir 17 a\u00f1os, primero como asistente de redacci\u00f3n y luego como reportero de la polic\u00eda. Habiendo encontrado su vocaci\u00f3n, no s\u00f3lo rechaz\u00f3 una beca universitaria de National Merit, sino que abandon\u00f3 la escuela secundaria al carecer de una clase requerida (ir\u00f3nicamente, educaci\u00f3n c\u00edvica) para calificar para un diploma. Antes de mudarse a Sacramento para cubrir pol\u00edtica, fue editor en jefe de tres peque\u00f1os diarios. 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