{"id":456136,"date":"2025-02-14T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-14T08:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?p=456136"},"modified":"2025-02-13T16:12:11","modified_gmt":"2025-02-14T00:12:11","slug":"californias-aging-populationtiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_es\/commentary\/2025\/02\/californias-aging-populationtiny\/","title":{"rendered":"California’s aging population will test whether its demography is destiny"},"content":{"rendered":"

California is a living laboratory for the observation that demography is destiny, first uttered by the 19th century French philosopher Auguste Comte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the first 150 years of its statehood, California\u2019s population grew briskly thanks to the effects of immigration from other countries and other states. However, although its ethnic and cultural attributes evolved, there was one constant: its youth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Immigrants tend to be young people seeking better lives for themselves, and youth also procreate, adding babies \u2014 sometimes more than a half-million a year \u2014 to the state\u2019s population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the century turned, however, California\u2019s population growth stalled, thanks to declines in both immigration and birth rates, and it even dropped in some years due to outflow to other states. The result, for better or worse, is that California\u2019s population is aging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBy 2040, 22 percent of Californians will be 65 or older, up from 14 percent in 2020,\u201d the Public Policy Institute of California declared in a recent report<\/a>. \u201cThe older population (aged 65+) will increase by 59%, while the working-age population (aged 20\u201364) will remain largely unchanged and the child population (aged 0\u201317) will decrease by 24 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The aging trend is having, or will have, two distinct impacts, one on the elderly population itself as its needs for housing, medical care and other services increase, and the other on the state as a whole as the number of working age adults stagnates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gov. Gavin Newsom\u2019s administration says it is working to mitigate negative aspects of the first impact with a Master Plan for Aging.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCalifornia is boldly embracing the opportunity and challenge to make life better as we age,\u201d Newsom says in a foreword to the latest report on the plan, released last month. \u201cI made a commitment in my first State of the State in 2019 to develop a California Master Plan for Aging, in honor of my late parents. I did so knowing that people from 50 to 100 years old are becoming a larger share of our families and communities. Californians are living longer, more varied lives. Change is here, change is necessary \u2014 and California is leading the way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether the lofty goals in the master plan can be reached is uncertain, given the prospect that the state will face multibillion-dollar budget deficits<\/a> for the remainder of Newsom\u2019s governorship and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\n\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\tLeer siguiente<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\tComentario<\/a>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

Despu\u00e9s de perder poblaci\u00f3n en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, California est\u00e1 empezando a crecer nuevamente. \u00bfEso es algo bueno?<\/a><\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tby<\/span> Dan Walters<\/a><\/span>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/article>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t<\/div>\n\t\n\n\n

It\u2019s even less certain whether the impacts on the other three-quarters of Californians will be acknowledged and handled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite having more than a million unemployed workers, California still has severe shortages of workers in many key occupations, including health care and construction. Keeping more seniors working may be one aspect of the situation but there\u2019s an obvious limit to that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLabor force participation rates for 65- to 74-year-olds are projected to increase over the next 15 years,\u201d the Public Policy Institute of California report declares. \u201cThe largest gains in participation will be among those aged 65 to 69, driven at least in part by the age at which people are eligible for full Social Security benefits being raised to 67. This suggests that more older adults may be working out of necessity rather than choice, particularly those with lower levels of education and perhaps lower lifetime earnings.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In decades past, when California needed more workers, it could count on migration from other states and nations to fill the vacuum, but the state\u2019s extremely high living costs, especially for housing,<\/a> make moving to California much less attractive. President Donald Trump\u2019s crackdown on illegal immigration<\/a> may worsen the shortages even more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not having enough workers may be one destiny of California\u2019s demographic change.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\n\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\tComentario<\/a>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

California necesitar\u00e1 m\u00e1s que solo pol\u00edticas para prepararse para una fuerza laboral que envejece<\/a><\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\tDivisi\u00f3n de California<\/a>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

La demanda de cuidadores en California est\u00e1 aumentando, pero su salario no. Los legisladores esperan cambiar eso.<\/a><\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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