{"id":112277,"date":"2020-04-29T13:03:28","date_gmt":"2020-04-29T20:03:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?p=112277"},"modified":"2020-04-29T13:15:48","modified_gmt":"2020-04-29T20:15:48","slug":"coronavirus-california-busting-census-campaign","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/politics\/2020\/04\/coronavirus-california-busting-census-campaign\/","title":{"rendered":"How coronavirus is busting California\u2019s $187 million census campaign"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t\n\t\t
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In summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t

Despite investing more than any other state, California’s response rate is off more than 10% from the final 2010 count. Even with extensions, there\u2019s a possibility for a record low turnout that would sink the state’s $187 million investment.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n

Heather Heckler was counting on buying census ads in four weekly newspapers that have long served Plumas County, located in the northern Sierra Nevada. As communications manager for Connecting Point, a public agency that received state funding, she hoped to boost the county\u2019s census participation rate, which was tracking below half the statewide average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then the Feather Publishing Company Inc. called to announce it was halting publication<\/a> as the coronavirus pandemic gutted revenues. \u201cThat was a huge gut punch,\u201d Heckler said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, she\u2019s at a loss for getting people\u2019s attention: \u201cI think the census is very important, but it\u2019s not top of mind for a lot of people at this moment.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One month into the decennial population count, the statewide response rate is off more than 10% from the final 2010 count. Even with extensions, there\u2019s a possibility for a record low turnout. In some counties, as few as one in 10 households have completed the survey. And since the coronavirus upended much of the state\u2019s door-to-door canvassing effort, there aren\u2019t any plans for a headcount of people experiencing homelessness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long before the outbreak, state and local officials were wringing their hands about a potential California undercount<\/a> as the president\u2019s political rhetoric stoked fear in the state\u2019s sizable immigrant population<\/a>. Now it turns out the deadly coronavirus could single-handedly sink the state\u2019s $187 million<\/a> census campaign. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Redistricting in jeopardy<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With each mile marker missed by the census, state lawmakers grow anxious about what comes after the count. California\u2019s independent redistricting commission<\/a> is required to take public input before drawing new state and federal voting districts next year. But given how much the federal government pushed back deadlines, it may leave insufficient time for the public to vet new district lines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven if you had a super computer that could spit out maps in two weeks, you can\u2019t do that,\u201d said state Sen. Tom Umberg, a Santa Ana Democrat and the co-chair of the Senate\u2019s select committee on the census.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Umberg said lawmakers may need to place a redistricting extension on the November ballot. If approved, the new deadline could bump up against the election cycle. In that case, it\u2019s conceivable candidates could be out campaigning before they find out who they will represent come Election Day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRight now as it currently exists, the redistricting maps won\u2019t be final until after the candidacy period opens,\u201d Umberg said. \u201cSo in other words, candidates will be potentially running in districts that haven\u2019t been finalized yet, which could create a huge amount of chaos.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California went big on census spending<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Nearly all states are struggling with low response rates due to coronavirus restrictions,<\/a> but none have arguably invested as much as California<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gov. Gavin Newsom and lawmakers injected the state\u2019s census office with a big budget and tasked the staff with coaxing reluctant and apathetic residents to answer nine questions<\/a> about their households. Through media campaigns and community partnerships, the goal was to get to those hard-to-reach communities prone to historical undercounts<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But while the state is doing better than New Mexico and West Virginia, it only marginally leads others that didn\u2019t invest nearly as much. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of this week, the Golden State has a 54.6% response rate, which is slightly better than the national average \u2014 but well short of California\u2019s 68.2% response rate in 2010. Without course correction, the 2020 census could yield one of the lowest returns in recent memory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n