{"id":115344,"date":"2020-05-21T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-21T07:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?post_type=commentary&p=115344"},"modified":"2020-06-11T15:30:00","modified_gmt":"2020-06-11T22:30:00","slug":"california-population-peaking-declining-census","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/05\/california-population-peaking-declining-census\/","title":{"rendered":"California population may be peaking"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lee este art\u00edculo en \uc2a4\ud398\uc778\uc5b4<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When California, with 17 million residents, surpassed New York to become the nation\u2019s most populous state in 1962, it was a cause for celebration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state had boomed during World War II and the postwar era, nearly tripling its population in just one generation. By the 1960s, it was well on its way to becoming a global economic powerhouse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the COVID-19 pandemic raging, a new state population report<\/a> issued on May 1 didn\u2019t get much media attention. But it underscored an important trend: California may be hitting its population peak and could start seeing a decline in the not-too-distant future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state Department of Finance calculated that California\u2019s population growth \u2014 which had been as high as 600,000 a year in the 1980s \u2014 dropped to a net of 87,984 or 0.02% in 2019, leaving California just shy of 40 million people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why? Two reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is that California\u2019s production of babies has been declining while the number of people dying has been increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second is that the number of people leaving California for other states has been far higher than those who move here, while foreign immigration also has been waning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fewer babies, fewer young immigrants and the aging of the large post-World War II baby boom generation also mean that as California\u2019s overall population growth slows to near-zero, its elderly population is still growing. And since the elderly population is mostly white, California\u2019s black, Latino and Asian communities are destined to become ever-larger components of the state\u2019s socioeconomic mix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These demographic trends, if continued, would have enormous impacts even without the pandemic. If anything, the pandemic and the very sharp economic downturn it spawned will accelerate the trends, most likely retarding population growth even more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the birth rate had been drifting lower for years, it took a steep dive when the Great Recession struck in 2007, falling from 15.4 per 1,000 population in that year to 11.3 last year. If the pandemic recession persists, we can expect another drop in births, plus an even stronger outflow of people to other states and weaker migration from other countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not only was the state population report issued during a pandemic, but also during a year when the federal government is conducting the decennial census, one that already had officials worried because many Californians \u2014 the poor, the nonwhite and the undocumented \u2014 are very difficult to count accurately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc5d0\uc774 new study by UCLA researchers<\/a> found that the poorest neighborhoods in Los Angeles County also tend to have the lowest census response rates and the highest rates of COVID-19 infection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs things stand now, the only way to prevent an extreme undercount in some areas of the county would be for a horde of in-person census takers to descend on parts of the city with the greatest chance of coronavirus transmission,\u201d study leader Paul Ong said. \u201cGiven the ongoing health concerns, it remains to be seen whether in-person interviews will even be viable during the current census.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever the census decrees California\u2019s population to be, it also will become the basis for calculating California\u2019s share of the nation\u2019s 435 congressional seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state gained seven seats after the 1990 census, thanks to a growth of 6 million people in the 1980s, but it gained just one new seat after the 2000 census and none after the 2010 census. California is on the bubble for possibly losing a seat this time around, which would drive home the new reality that its 170 years of strong population expansion have come to an end.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California has seen strong population growth for the past 170 years, but new data indicate that we may be reaching our population peak and could begin seeing a drop.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":73,"featured_media":97061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_spanish_translation_id":0,"_is_translation":false,"_newspack_byline_active":false,"_newspack_byline":"","newspack_content_restriction_is_exempt":false,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58,63],"tags":[40117],"legislator":[],"bill":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"coauthors":[4174],"class_list":["post-115344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-dan-walters","tag-commentary","entry"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nCalifornia population may be peaking - 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He began covering California politics in 1975, just as Jerry Brown began his first stint as governor, and began writing his column in 1981, first for the Sacramento Union for three years, then for The Sacramento Bee for 33 years and now for CalMatters since 2017. Dan is also the author or co-author of two books about California, \u201cThe New California: Facing the 21st Century\u201d and \u201cThe Third House: Lobbyists, Money and Power in Sacramento.\u201d He is a frequent radio show guest and occasionally appears on national television, commenting on California issues. Walters began his career in 1960 at the Humboldt Times in Eureka, California, a month before his 17th birthday, first as a newsroom aide and later as a police beat reporter. Having found his calling, he not only turned down a National Merit college scholarship but dropped out of high school, lacking one required class \u2013 ironically civics \u2013 to qualify for a diploma. Before moving to Sacramento to cover politics, he was the managing editor of three small daily newspapers. He has two adult daughters and three grandsons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/DanCALmatters"],"birthDate":"1943-10-10","gender":"Male","jobTitle":"Columnist","worksFor":"CalMatters.org","url":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/author\/dan-walters\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","canonical_url":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/05\/california-population-peaking-declining-census\/","smart_links":{"inbound":0,"outbound":0},"traffic_boost_suggestions_count":0,"meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"California population may be peaking","url":"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/05\/california-population-peaking-declining-census\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/05\/california-population-peaking-declining-census\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?resize=60%2C60&ssl=1","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?fit=2000%2C1277&ssl=1"},"articleSection":"Dan Walters","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"\ub304 \uc6d4\ud130\uc2a4"}],"creator":["Dan Walters"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"\uce7c\ub9e4\ud130\uc2a4","logo":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/calmatters-logo_2x.png"},"keywords":["commentary"],"dateCreated":"2020-05-21T07:01:00Z","datePublished":"2020-05-21T07:01:00Z","dateModified":"2020-06-11T22:30:00Z"},"rendered":"<meta name=\"parsely-title\" content=\"California population may be peaking\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-link\" content=\"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/05\/california-population-peaking-declining-census\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-type\" content=\"post\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-image-url\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?resize=60%2C60&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-pub-date\" content=\"2020-05-21T07:01:00Z\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-section\" content=\"Dan Walters\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-tags\" content=\"commentary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-author\" content=\"Dan Walters\" \/>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/calmatters.org\/p.js"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?fit=2000%2C1277&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/73"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115344"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115344\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119368,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115344\/revisions\/119368"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115344"},{"taxonomy":"legislator","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/legislator?post=115344"},{"taxonomy":"bill","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bill?post=115344"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=115344"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=115344"}],"curies":[{"name":"\uc6cc\ub4dc\ud504\ub808\uc2a4","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}