{"id":285156,"date":"2023-01-02T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-02T08:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?p=285156"},"modified":"2022-12-29T10:15:00","modified_gmt":"2022-12-29T18:15:00","slug":"how-california-respond-budget-deficit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2023\/01\/how-california-respond-budget-deficit\/","title":{"rendered":"How will California deal with a big budget deficit?"},"content":{"rendered":"

While California has a surplus of critical issues demanding political attention<\/a> \u2013 housing, homelessness and water to mention the most obvious \u2013 it faces a deficit of financial resources to deal with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gov. Gavin Newsom will soon reveal a proposed budget for the 2023-24 fiscal year that begins July 1, and it\u2019s likely to greatly differ from the 2022-23 version he and the Legislature adopted just six months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current budget reflected what Newsom said would be a massive surplus<\/a>, thanks mostly to a flood of tax revenues from high-income Californians who were enjoying big gains on their investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pegging the surplus at $97.5 billion, Newsom bragged that \u201cno other state in American history has ever experienced a surplus as large as this.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He and the Legislature enacted a $300-plus billion budget that committed much of the supposed surplus to expanding an array of social and educational services, including what he said was achieving universal health care by extending coverage to all undocumented immigrants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just a few weeks later, however, Newsom began acknowledging that the surplus might not be as large as he had boasted. He vetoed a number of spending bills, citing indications that a recession might be on the horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In November, the Legislature\u2019s budget analyst, Gabe Patek, made the reversal of fortune official in his annual report on the state\u2019s finances<\/a>, saying the healthy surplus that Newsom projected is really a \u201c$24 billion budget problem.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The budget problem is mainly attributable to lower revenue estimates, which are lower than budget act projections from 2021\u201122 through 2023\u201124 by $41 billion,” Patek said, stressing that the deficit would occur even if there\u2019s no recession but would become worse if the economy does, indeed, “turn sour.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether the nation is headed for recession is a much-debated question. The Federal Reserve System has hiked interest rates sharply in hopes of cooling off the economy and lowering a soaring inflation rate. While it hopes for a \u201csoft landing,\u201d some economists believe that it could become a full-blown recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California\u2019s budget is particularly sensitive to larger economic currents because it is inordinately dependent on taxing incomes of a relative few wealthy Californians. Income taxes are three-quarters of the state\u2019s general fund revenues and 1% of taxpayers generate nearly half of those taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBased on historical experience, should a recession occur soon, revenues could be $30 billion to $50 billion below our revenue outlook in the budget window,\u201d Patek said. Because of the looming threat of recession, Patek urged the Legislature to adopt a very conservative approach to the 2023-24 budget, balancing it without relying on the state\u2019s reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s good advice, but will the Legislature heed it? Backpedaling is a hard sell in a Legislature dominated by left-leaning Democrats and allies in advocacy groups that had been elated by the budget\u2019s provisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Initial indications<\/a> are that legislators would prefer to continue the programmatic enhancements even if it means dipping into reserves or borrowing money to cover the deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Assembly Budget Committee said as much in a \u201cbudget blueprint\u201d<\/a> issued after Patek made his report. The document devotes much verbiage to self-congratulation about the current budget\u2019s largesse and calls for protecting it by using the \u201cstate balance sheet to continue key investments.\u201d That\u2019s defined as shifting some spending to special funds and \u201cborrowing from special funds, especially if revenue situation worsens.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So where does Newsom stand between these two conflicting approaches? Will he adopt Patek\u2019s conservative advice or side with the Legislature, even if it means deficit spending and debt? We\u2019ll know in about a week.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California’s current state budget was enacted six months ago on the assumption that the state had a massive surplus, but it now faces a multi-billion-dollar deficit.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":73,"featured_media":222702,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","apple_news_api_created_at":"2023-01-02T08:01:06Z","apple_news_api_id":"c146192d-9f0f-48f3-a6e0-00b88bd8036c","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2023-01-02T08:01:06Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AwUYZLZ8PSPOm4AC4i9gDbA","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_spanish_translation_id":0,"_is_translation":false,"_newspack_byline_active":false,"_newspack_byline":"","newspack_content_restriction_is_exempt":false,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58,63],"tags":[603,40117],"legislator":[],"bill":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"coauthors":[4174],"class_list":["post-285156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-dan-walters","tag-california-budget","tag-commentary","entry"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow will California deal with a big budget deficit? 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He began covering California politics in 1975, just as Jerry Brown began his first stint as governor, and began writing his column in 1981, first for the Sacramento Union for three years, then for The Sacramento Bee for 33 years and now for CalMatters since 2017. Dan is also the author or co-author of two books about California, \u201cThe New California: Facing the 21st Century\u201d and \u201cThe Third House: Lobbyists, Money and Power in Sacramento.\u201d He is a frequent radio show guest and occasionally appears on national television, commenting on California issues. Walters began his career in 1960 at the Humboldt Times in Eureka, California, a month before his 17th birthday, first as a newsroom aide and later as a police beat reporter. Having found his calling, he not only turned down a National Merit college scholarship but dropped out of high school, lacking one required class \u2013 ironically civics \u2013 to qualify for a diploma. Before moving to Sacramento to cover politics, he was the managing editor of three small daily newspapers. He has two adult daughters and three grandsons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/DanCALmatters"],"birthDate":"1943-10-10","gender":"Male","jobTitle":"Columnist","worksFor":"CalMatters.org","url":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/author\/dan-walters\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","canonical_url":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2023\/01\/how-california-respond-budget-deficit\/","smart_links":{"inbound":0,"outbound":0},"traffic_boost_suggestions_count":0,"meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"How will California deal with a big budget deficit?","url":"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2023\/01\/how-california-respond-budget-deficit\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2023\/01\/how-california-respond-budget-deficit\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/01022-Newsom-Budget-Proposal-2022-MG-CM-04.jpg?resize=60%2C60&ssl=1","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/01022-Newsom-Budget-Proposal-2022-MG-CM-04.jpg?fit=2000%2C1333&ssl=1"},"articleSection":"Dan Walters","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"\ub304 \uc6d4\ud130\uc2a4"}],"creator":["Dan Walters"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"\uce7c\ub9e4\ud130\uc2a4","logo":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/calmatters-logo_2x.png"},"keywords":["california budget","commentary"],"dateCreated":"2023-01-02T08:01:00Z","datePublished":"2023-01-02T08:01:00Z","dateModified":"2023-01-02T08:01:00Z"},"rendered":"<meta name=\"parsely-title\" content=\"How will California deal with a big budget deficit?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-link\" content=\"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2023\/01\/how-california-respond-budget-deficit\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-type\" content=\"post\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-image-url\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/01022-Newsom-Budget-Proposal-2022-MG-CM-04.jpg?resize=60%2C60&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-pub-date\" content=\"2023-01-02T08:01:00Z\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-section\" content=\"Dan Walters\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-tags\" content=\"california budget,commentary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-author\" content=\"Dan Walters\" \/>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/calmatters.org\/p.js"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/01022-Newsom-Budget-Proposal-2022-MG-CM-04.jpg?fit=2000%2C1333&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285156","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/73"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=285156"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285156\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":285193,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285156\/revisions\/285193"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/222702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=285156"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=285156"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=285156"},{"taxonomy":"legislator","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/legislator?post=285156"},{"taxonomy":"bill","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bill?post=285156"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=285156"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=285156"}],"curies":[{"name":"\uc6cc\ub4dc\ud504\ub808\uc2a4","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}