{"id":415499,"date":"2024-03-14T05:31:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-14T12:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?p=415499"},"modified":"2024-03-14T08:36:14","modified_gmt":"2024-03-14T15:36:14","slug":"california-climate-change-mandate-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/environment\/climate-change\/2024\/03\/california-climate-change-mandate-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"California isn\u2019t on track to meet its climate change mandates \u2014 and a new analysis says it\u2019s not even close"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A new analysis concludes that unless California almost triples its rate of cutting greenhouse gases, the state won’t meet its 2030 climate change target. Some emissions were rising.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n

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California will fail to meet its ambitious mandates for combating climate change unless the state almost triples its rate of reducing greenhouse gases through 2030, according to a new analysis<\/a> released today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After dropping during the pandemic, California\u2019s emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other climate-warming gases increased 3.4% in 2021, when the economy rebounded. The increase puts California further away from reaching its target mandated under state law: emitting 40% less in 2030 than in 1990<\/a> \u2014 a feat that will become more expensive and more difficult as time passes, the report\u2019s authors told CalMatters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe fact that they need to increase the speed of reduction at about three times faster than they’re actually doing \u2014 that does not bode well,\u201d said Stafford Nichols, a researcher at Beacon Economics<\/a>, a Los Angeles-based economics research firm, and a co-author of the annual California Green Innovation Index released today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs we get closer to that 2030 goal, the fact that we’re further off just means that we have to decrease faster each year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state is even further away from meeting a more aggressive goal set by the Air Resources Board in the state\u2019s new climate blueprint<\/a>. Under that plan, greenhouse gases must be cut 48% below 1990 levels by 2030. Gov. Gavin Newsom had urged the board to adopt the more difficult goal, calling the new scoping plan<\/a> the \u201cmost ambitious set of climate goals of any jurisdiction in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Clegern, an air board spokesman, said in an emailed statement to CalMatters that state officials are confident that California will hit its targets, including its goal of carbon neutrality by 2045.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clegern said the state is in the midst of updating its climate programs and strengthening regulations, which, he said, \u201ctakes time\u201d because they have to \u201ctranslate into projects and action in the real world.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is more important than ever to transition existing facilities, and build clean energy infrastructure,\u201d Clegern said. \u201cThis decade is critical for implementation of the state\u2019s plans and policies. \u201d He added, \u201cas we have stated for more than 10 years, California\u2019s climate plans will continue to adjust to what remains a developing threat.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greenhouse gases are spewed by an array of sources, mostly from vehicles, industries and power plants that burn fossil fuels, but also from livestock, landfills and other sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report, compiled by Beacon Economics and environmental nonprofit Next 10<\/a>, analyzed state data and concluded that through 2030, California would have to cut all greenhouse gases by 4.4% every year, beginning back in 2022. (Only preliminary data is available for 2022.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To put that challenge in perspective, the state has only achieved annual cuts of more than 4% twice over the last two decades, both during major recessions, in 2009 and 2020, according to Stephanie Leonard, director of research for Next 10. And from 2016 through 2021, the annual average reduction has been just 1.6%, according to the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe need each program to perform as well as or better than identified in the scoping plan in order to achieve our goals.\u201d<\/p>Liane Randolph, Chair of the California Air Resources Board<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Massive amounts of emissions \u2014 more than 100 million metric tons a year \u2014 will have to be eliminated for California to meet the mandate. The state couldn\u2019t spew more than about 258 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in 2030, compared to 2021\u2019s 381 million, according to the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Liane Randolph, chair of the California Air Resources Board, told the state Legislature\u2019s joint committee on climate change policies<\/a> on Monday that there is little room for error in the years ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe challenge is that we need all of our programs to be effective and reduce emissions as laid out in the scoping plan,\u201d Randolph said. \u201cWe need each program to perform as well as or better than identified in the scoping plan in order to achieve our goals.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Power plants and cement are major emitters<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

California already has made substantial progress cleaning up cars and trucks. It has the world\u2019s strictest emissions controls on vehicles, including a regulation that phases out new sales of gasoline-powered cars by 2035. Last year, electric vehicle sales were up 29%<\/a>, though they slowed at year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But electricity generation was responsible for some of the biggest increases in emissions between 2020 and 2021, a 6.7% increase for imported electric power and 3.9% for in-state power, the report found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s because California\u2019s drought resulted in less hydroelectric power and more reliance on natural gas to avoid power shortages, according to Leonard. In 2020, the state faced its first non-wildfire rolling blackouts<\/a> in nearly two decades after record-breaking heat. <\/em>Last year, the state extended operations at three natural gas plants<\/a> along the Southern California coast to shore up California\u2019s straining power grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Natural gas plants are the largest source<\/a> of greenhouse gases among California\u2019s in-state producers of electricity. California has a law mandating<\/a> zero-carbon, all-renewable electricity by 2045 but it has a long way to go<\/a>: About 42% of power generated in the state<\/a> came from natural gas in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt will take more action, time and resources to further decarbonize the economy, but the last couple decades offer hope.\u201d<\/p>2024 California Green Innovation Index<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The report also highlighted cement facilities, saying California has some of the planet\u2019s most polluting cement plants. As more housing is built and more cement is produced, the authors recommended “urgent action” to cut those emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California\u2019s seven cement plants emit about 7.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gases per year<\/a>, according to the air board, which has a working group aimed at decarbonizing the industry. Some factories are turning to low-carbon fuels, including the burning of tires<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carbon capture and storage technology also may be used at cement plants because they are so difficult to decarbonize. These facilities capture emissions from industrial plants, then inject them underground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCalifornia\u2019s cement plants are an example of the challenge. Our cement is more carbon-intensive because we have older plants,\u201d said Clegern of the air board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u200b\u200bWildfires were another large emitter of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cToo often the fact of California’s historical accomplishments is cited as evidence that state policy is on track, when often the pace of change going forward falls well short.”<\/p>Danny Cullenward, Independent Emissions Market Advisory Committee<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On an optimistic note, the report acknowledged that California has some of the lowest per-capita emissions in the U.S., and is the third-most carbon-efficient state, following New York and Massachusetts. However, many of the easiest and least costly steps have already been implemented. So finding room for future reductions will be more challenging in coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe state has shown that it is possible to grow the economy, while lowering emissions,\u201d the California Green Innovation Index says. \u201cIt will take more action, time and resources to further decarbonize the economy, but the last couple decades offer hope.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new analysis is the most recent example of an outside entity warning that California\u2019s climate goals face major hurdles. The state\u2019s Legislative Analyst\u2019s Office said last year that California lacked a \u201cclear strategy\u201d for meeting its 2030 <\/a>targets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, last month, the state\u2019s advisory committee for its controversial cap and trade market noted<\/a> that the state was not on track to meet 2030 targets. Cap and trade is the state\u2019s market that allows companies to buy and trade credits for reducing greenhouse gases. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cToo often the fact of California’s historical accomplishments is cited as evidence that state policy is on track, when often the pace of change going forward falls well short of what is required to meet the state’s next climate targets,\u201d Danny Cullenward, an economist and vice chair of the Independent Emissions Market Advisory Committee told CalMatters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUnfortunately,\u201d he said, \u201cthe state is not on track for its 2030 climate target.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t\n\t\t

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