{"id":98672,"date":"2020-01-19T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2020-01-19T08:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?post_type=commentary&p=98672"},"modified":"2020-01-23T15:03:12","modified_gmt":"2020-01-23T23:03:12","slug":"delegate-presidential-primary-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/01\/delegate-presidential-primary-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"An uber-complex presidential primary"},"content":{"rendered":"

A new poll of California voters finds a virtual tie among\nSens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden\njust a couple of weeks before mail voting begins for the March 3 Democratic\npresidential primary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanders crept ahead of long-time leader Biden among Democratic voters in the \uce98\ub9ac\ud3ec\ub2c8\uc544 \uacf5\uacf5\uc815\ucc45\uc5f0\uad6c\uc18c \uc5ec\ub860\uc870\uc0ac<\/a>, jumping 10 percentage points over the last two months to 27%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden\u2019s and Warren\u2019s shares were\nunchanged at 24% and 23% respectively, meaning Sanders gained supporters from\nsecond- and third-tier candidates who either dropped out, such as California\nSen. Kamala Harris, or have faded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Were election\nresults to match the PPIC polling, Sanders would claim a victory of sorts, but\nit\u2019s not quite that simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the\nDemocratic Party\u2019s uber-complex rules, coming in first in the primary doesn\u2019t\nnecessarily generate a trove of delegate votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Paul Mitchell, California\u2019s premier political number-cruncher, points out in a Capitol Weekly article<\/a>, \u201cCalifornia\u2019s Democratic primary isn\u2019t won at the \u2018national poll\u2019 level, or even at the \u2018statewide poll\u2019 level. It\u2019s won through a complicated, proportional delegate-allocation procedure that affects campaign strategy and could muddy the final election results.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California will send 495 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, Mitchell continues. \u201cOf those, 416 will be pledged delegates (meaning that they are committed to a candidate), while 79 will be the unpledged \u2018superdelegates. … ‘<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe\nbulk of those pledged delegates will be allocated at the congressional level,\nwith four to seven delegates awarded in each of California\u2019s 53 congressional districts, for\na total of 272. In addition, there are an additional 144 delegates awarded based on\nthe statewide results.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well,\nthat doesn\u2019t sound too complicated, but Mitchell\nadds, \u201cthere\u2019s a catch,\u201dand explains it thusly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTo\nwin any delegates within a congressional district requires the candidate to\nobtain the support of a minimum of 15% of that district\u2019s voters. And the state result is subject to the\nsame rule: If only one candidate gets 15% statewide, that person could win all\n144 statewide delegates, but if five candidates reach 15% they would divide the\ndelegates among themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGiven\nthe method of calculating delegates at the congressional district level, the\n\u2018winner\u2019 might only get 20,000 votes more than the closest competitor but\nreceive just one more delegate.  Or, if the winning contender was the only one to reach\n15%, he or she could win by a mere 1% margin yet capture 100% of the\ndelegates.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Got\nthat? And to make it even trickier, counting the votes and applying the formula\ndistrict by district could take weeks and by the time California\u2019s final result\nis known, the race might have already been decided elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nlikelihood of a close finish among the three frontrunners, the complexity of\nthe delegate allocation system and the inevitable delay in counting votes could\nessentially make our primary a non-factor in choosing the Democratic candidate\nto challenge President Donald Trump, undercutting the contention that advancing\nthe election from June to March would make California more relevant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nsystem that Mitchell describes in excruciating detail poses another question:\nIf California\u2019s Democratic politicians are enamored of a proportional primary election,\nrather than winner-take-all, why do they insist that November\u2019s electoral votes\nall go to the winner of the popular vote, rather than being allocated by\ncongressional district, as a couple of other states do?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just\nasking.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

California advanced its presidential primary to March in hopes of becoming more relevant, but the complexity of the Democratic delegate process could undercut that hope.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":73,"featured_media":97061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_spanish_translation_id":0,"_is_translation":false,"_newspack_byline_active":false,"_newspack_byline":"","newspack_content_restriction_is_exempt":false,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58,63],"tags":[40117],"legislator":[],"bill":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"coauthors":[4174],"class_list":["post-98672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-dan-walters","tag-commentary","entry"],"acf":[],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nCommentary: An uber-complex presidential primary - 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He began covering California politics in 1975, just as Jerry Brown began his first stint as governor, and began writing his column in 1981, first for the Sacramento Union for three years, then for The Sacramento Bee for 33 years and now for CalMatters since 2017. Dan is also the author or co-author of two books about California, \u201cThe New California: Facing the 21st Century\u201d and \u201cThe Third House: Lobbyists, Money and Power in Sacramento.\u201d He is a frequent radio show guest and occasionally appears on national television, commenting on California issues. Walters began his career in 1960 at the Humboldt Times in Eureka, California, a month before his 17th birthday, first as a newsroom aide and later as a police beat reporter. Having found his calling, he not only turned down a National Merit college scholarship but dropped out of high school, lacking one required class \u2013 ironically civics \u2013 to qualify for a diploma. Before moving to Sacramento to cover politics, he was the managing editor of three small daily newspapers. He has two adult daughters and three grandsons.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/DanCALmatters"],"birthDate":"1943-10-10","gender":"Male","jobTitle":"Columnist","worksFor":"CalMatters.org","url":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/author\/dan-walters\/"}]}},"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","canonical_url":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/01\/delegate-presidential-primary-poll\/","smart_links":{"inbound":0,"outbound":0},"traffic_boost_suggestions_count":0,"meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"An uber-complex presidential primary","url":"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/01\/delegate-presidential-primary-poll\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/01\/delegate-presidential-primary-poll\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?resize=60%2C60&ssl=1","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?fit=2000%2C1277&ssl=1"},"articleSection":"Dan Walters","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"\ub304 \uc6d4\ud130\uc2a4"}],"creator":["Dan Walters"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"\uce7c\ub9e4\ud130\uc2a4","logo":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/calmatters-logo_2x.png"},"keywords":["commentary"],"dateCreated":"2020-01-19T08:01:00Z","datePublished":"2020-01-19T08:01:00Z","dateModified":"2020-01-23T23:03:12Z"},"rendered":"<meta name=\"parsely-title\" content=\"An uber-complex presidential primary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-link\" content=\"http:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/commentary\/2020\/01\/delegate-presidential-primary-poll\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-type\" content=\"post\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-image-url\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?resize=60%2C60&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-pub-date\" content=\"2020-01-19T08:01:00Z\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-section\" content=\"Dan Walters\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-tags\" content=\"commentary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"parsely-author\" content=\"Dan Walters\" \/>","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/calmatters.org\/p.js"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/calmatters.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/081219_Capitol_AW_sized_02.jpg?fit=2000%2C1277&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98672","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/73"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98672"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98672\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98686,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98672\/revisions\/98686"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98672"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98672"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98672"},{"taxonomy":"legislator","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/legislator?post=98672"},{"taxonomy":"bill","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bill?post=98672"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=98672"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=98672"}],"curies":[{"name":"\uc6cc\ub4dc\ud504\ub808\uc2a4","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}