{"id":61007,"date":"2018-11-01T10:11:02","date_gmt":"2018-11-01T17:11:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/?post_type=blog&p=61007"},"modified":"2020-06-23T10:26:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-23T17:26:35","slug":"california-polls-right-or-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/_zh\/politics\/2018\/11\/california-polls-right-or-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"A California user\u2019s guide to political polls: Six easy tips"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t\n\t\t
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In summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t

You may rightly wonder: What kind of statistical black magic is performed behind the scenes to produce any given poll? Here’s what to keep in mind:<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n

Another day, another poll in California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This latest batch<\/a> of numbers comes from UC Berkeley\u2019s Institute of Governmental Studies, which echoes other recent independent polls in showing Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom<\/a> leading Republican businessman John Cox<\/a> by a healthy margin in the governor\u2019s race<\/a>, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein<\/a> fending off a challenge<\/a> from fellow Democrat state Sen. Kevin de Le\u00f3n<\/a>, and defeat in store for ballot measures to repeal the gas tax<\/a> hike and allow more rent control<\/a>. National polls largely suggest the likelihood<\/a> that the U.S. House will flip to the Democrats and the U.S. Senate will remain in Republican control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether those data points lift your spirits or fill you with political dread might influence how seriously you take such polls\u2014and what lessons you drew from the jaw-dropping surprises of the 2016 election. Regardless, brace yourself for news about more polls in the final countdown to election day: phone polls and online polls, independent polls and hired-by-one-side polls, red polls and blue polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You may rightly wonder: What kind of statistical black magic is performed behind the scenes to produce any given poll? Keep these tips in mind:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tip 1: Consider the pollster<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Not all pollsters are equal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Generally speaking, political pollsters who have been hired by candidates have plenty of reasons to make their clients look good or say what they want to hear. If you can\u2019t tell who paid for a poll, ask yourself if you\u2019ve ever heard of the organization and whether the numbers they\u2019re providing seem roughly in line with others you may have seen. If not, said Dean Bonner an associate survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, those are \u201cred flags.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transparency is also a good sign, he added. See if you can find the survey\u2019s crosstabs\u2014the detailed numerical breakdowns of how different subgroups answered each question. And look for the actual questions that respondents were asked, because it can be easy to get the answer you want with some clever framing. Which brings us to\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tip 2: Read the questions<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

This month, the polling firm SurveyUSA<\/a> found that 58 percent of likely voters support Proposition 6<\/a>, the ballot measure to repeal a recent 12-cents-per-gallon boost in the state gas tax, at a cost of roughly $5 billion in lost revenue per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrast those results with the recent Institute of Governmental Studies poll, which found that only 40 percent support the repeal. That\u2019s an 18 percentage point gap between the two surveys\u2014the difference between an anti-tax landslide and a resounding defeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What explains the contradictory results? See if you can spot the difference in how each pollster asked about the ballot measure:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SurveyUSA \u2013 <\/strong>Proposition 6, a constitutional amendment which would repeal gasoline and diesel taxes, and vehicle fees<\/strong>, that were enacted in 2017 and would require any future fuel taxes be approved by voters. A YES vote on Prop 6 would repeal fuel tax increases that were enacted in 2017, including the Road Repaid and Accountability Act of 2017. A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future, provided 2\/3 of the CA House and 2\/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote?<\/p>

IGS \u2013 <\/strong>Proposition 6: Eliminates certain road repair and transportation funding<\/strong>. Requires certain fuel taxes and vehicle fees be approved by the electorate. Initiative constitutional amendment. Repeals a 2017 transportation law\u2019s taxes and fees designated for road repairs and public transportation. Fiscal impact: Reduced ongoing revenues of $5.1 billion from state fuel and vehicle taxes that mainly would have paid for highway and road maintenance and repairs, as well as transit programs.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Half of the UC Berkeley poll respondents were also given the hint that Prop. 6 is also frequently called the \u201cgas tax repeal initiative.\u201d Even so, the dramatically different framing seems to have steered voters towards different opinions on the issue. While the Berkeley poll mostly sticks to the language of the proposition itself (which emphasizes how the measure would take away transportation funding), the SurveyUSA poll describes the proposition primarily as a \u201crepeal of gasoline and diesel taxes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last September, the Public Policy Institute of California was able to produce a similar split<\/a> in opinion among the same group of people<\/em> by framing Prop. 6 as either a gas tax repeal or a funding cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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