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California Election 2018: Updates and Analysis

California Election 2018: Updates and Analysis

June 1, 2018

GOP now at number 3

Election 2018

May 29, 2018 5:35 pm

Gavin Newsom insists his campaign tactic won’t really cost Democrats the House

Election Reporter
Gavin Newsom campaigning for governor. Photo by Ben Christopher for CALmatters
Gavin Newsom campaigning for governor. Photo by Ben Christopher for CALmatters

Democrat Gavin Newsom is trying to swat away growing complaints that his campaign tactic of boosting Republican rival John Cox could cause collateral damage in autumn: driving up GOP turnout and thereby undermining Democratic efforts to win key California congressional seats necessary for their party to take control of the House of Representatives.

But what would be bad for the Democrats in November is good for frontrunner Newsom now. Only two contenders will advance to the general election after the June 5 primary, and he would prefer to knock out any Democratic contenders who might be tougher for him to beat one-on-one in this blue state.

But Newsom, the lieutenant governor, rejected the suggestion that having Cox, a San Diego-area businessman, on the November ballot would imperil Democratic chances to seize the House.

Just the opposite, he claimed today.

“Isn’t this a moment of opportunity to unite the Democratic Party?” said Newsom, as his sky blue campaign bus made its way through Silicon Valley traffic between San Francisco and San Jose.

He went on to argue that the party would instead benefit from a race “where you can line up a Democratic agenda and support those down-ballot tickets and unite the party…instead of spending resources attacking one another.”

Newsom has taken flak from Democratic gubernatorial candidates Antonio Villaraigosa and Delaine Eastin for giving the Cox campaign an implicit boost. Earlier this month, Team Newsom ran a political ad reminding voters that Cox “stands with Donald Trump and the NRA.” That’s an attack ad that happens to double as a ‘signal boost’ for the conservative businessman with Republican voters.

That Newsom, a progressive Democrat and avowed political foe of President Trump, would favor a Republican with the president’s endorsement, is an odd artifact of California’s “top two” election system. In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one, Newsom’s clear preference would be to face a member of the opposite party. “A Republican would be ideal,” he said at a recent debate.

“Cox himself would not be a huge GOP voter draw, but the absence of any Republican candidate at all would probably depress the party’s turnout,” said Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College.

And contrary to Newsom’s assertion that a single Democratic candidate would rally progressive voters, Pitney pointed to the 2014 gubernatorial campaign in which Gov. Jerry Brown faced off against Republican Neel Kashkari. “And turnout was a record low,” said Pitney.

Lower turnout among California Republicans in November could have national implications. Democrats need to net only 23 congressional seats to take back political control of the House of Representatives next year. Some of the most heavily contested districts are in California, including seven Republican-held seats highlighted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In other words, political control of Congress—and with it, the fate of President Trump’s future policy agenda and potentially even the likelihood of impeachment proceedings down the road—could be decided by California voters. A lot hinges on who votes and who doesn’t.

Last week, the Villaraigosa campaign filed a complaint with the state’s Fair Political Practices Commission, arguing that supporters of the Newsom campaign broke state election rules by failing to disclose that they support Cox as well. “This is a man who will justify just about anything that is in his personal political interests,” said Villaraigosa campaign spokesman, Luis Vizcaino, referring to Newsom.

Meanwhile, supporters of the Villaraigosa campaign have been engaged in the opposite strategy of tearing down Cox’s cred with conservative voters. Public polls show Cox and Villaraigosa competing for the second place spot.

“Newsom’s interests clash with those of Democrats down the ballot,” said Pitney. “They want lower GOP turnout, which could tip some key races their way. Newsom wants an opponent whom he could beat without any effort. That’s Cox.”

Cox, of course, would disagree. He spent the day in Fresno holding back-to-back press conference with Republican candidate for attorney general, Steven Bailey. Villaraigosa also spent the day getting out the vote in Fresno, holding a press conference with the city’s police chief and touring a high school.

But neither launched their last week before election day on June 5th with quite as much fanfare as Newsom, who kicked off a statewide bus tour outside his former stomping ground at San Francisco City Hall.

On the first leg, Newsom spoke to reporters for just shy of an hour and a half, where he re-articulated many of the policy positions he has outlined throughout the campaign—from support for single-payer health care to urging a more proactive state role in land use decisions. “Local government has to be incentivized for good behavior and…penalized for bad behavior,” he said. (Here’s a deep dive on where Newsom and his fellow candidates come down on 40 state issues.)

If virtually every public poll is to believed, Newsom is a lock for one of the top two spots next week. Still, he said, “we’re running as if we’re way behind.”

Then again, it’s never too early to start campaigning for November.

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In 2014, Silicon Valley venture capitalist and noted political eccentric Tim Draper sponsored a ballot initiative to divide California into six states. The effort failed, considered by many to be politically impractical and legally untenable. So Draper has scaled back his ambitions.

Now he wants to divide California in three—and this week the Secretary of State announced that Draper had gathered the requisite number of signatures to qualify the initiative for the November ballot.

Legal uncertainties aside (and, boy, are there are a lot of them), this invites the obvious question: How did California’s “three states” vote in last week’s primary election?

Well, it was obvious to us anyway.

Fortunately for Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and John Cox, the two candidates running for governor this November, their top two spots are secure—no matter which California they choose to run in. Two of them gave more votes to the existing California’s top vote-getter, Newsom. But the third would-be state favored Cox.

Under Draper’s proposition, a newly minted “Northern California” would encompass everything from the base of Silicon Valley and Merced to the Oregon Coast. A shrunk-down “California” would hug the coast from San Benito County to Los Angeles. The remainder would become “Southern California,” including San Diego, Orange County, and—for some reason—Fresno and Tulare.

Though Cox has a lead in Southern California, registered Democrats still make up the largest bloc of voters in all three states.

In other statewide races, the three hypothetical states were largely in agreement. In his campaign to remain the state’s Attorney General, Xavier Becerra got the top spot—“North,” “South,” and in-between. Likewise, all three Californias backed Sen. Dianne Feinstein for her fifth full term.

Of course, election results are still not final; there are still over one million ballots to count. Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa may have hope yet of securing a win in coastal “California.”

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Ballots are still being counted, but last week’s election is already offering good news for Democrats hoping to take back the House of Representatives in November.

Not only did the party steer clear of its dreaded “shutout scenario,” in which an oversupply of candidates in some of the state’s most competitive races threatened to divide up the Democratic vote, leaving only Republicans to advance to the general election. The preliminary count also suggests that primary voters in certain high profile districts are much more inclined toward Democrats than they were in 2014.

That may or may not foretell a “blue wave” in California, but it does show that Republicans have their work cut out for them.

Why should the array of (mostly) leftward pointing arrows worry Republicans?

Comparing the June 2018 primary to the June primary in 2014, the share of the vote going towards Republican candidates has fallen dramatically in many of the very seats that Democrats are most hoping to flip this fall.

In the district along the border of Orange and San Diego counties represented by GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, who is retiring this year, a majority of primary voters cast their ballots for a Democrat.

A few more of the districts national Democrats have targeted are within spitting distance of a partisan break-even. In GOP Rep. Jeff Denham’s district in the Central Valley, Republicans cobbled together 52 percent of the vote (down from 59 percent in 2014). Likewise, in both Laguna Niguel and Palmdale, Rep. Mimi Walters and Rep. Steve Knight, the only Republicans running in their districts, got 52 percent of the vote as well.

That represents a big shift since 2014, the only other non-presidential election year in which a primary was held under the state’s new top-two system.

In Issa’s district, 16 candidates were vying to replace him in the lead up to June 5. The top two winners, Republican Diane Harkey and Democrat Mike Levin, won around 26 percent and 18 percent of the vote, respectively.

What would a head-to-head Harkey-Levin match-up look like without the 15 other competitors?

One way to guess is to tally up the share of the vote that went to all Republican candidates and compare it to the Democratic share. Assuming that the various supporters of Assemblyman Rocky Chávez, San Diego Supervisor Kristin Gaspar, and the other five Republicans running in that district are likely to fall behind their party’s candidate in the general election, that ought to give us a pretty good idea of what to expect in November.

And the results don’t look good for Harkey.

So far (and again, ballot are still being counted), the Republican candidates in Issa’s seat have garnered 48 percent of the vote. That’s compared to 51 percent for all the Democrats.

That’s also a steep decline from the 2014 primary share when Issa, running as the only Republican, won 61.9 percent of the vote.

Even in districts like Denham’s, Walters’, Knight’s, and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s, where Republicans won slim majorities of last week’s vote, those margins may be a little too close for comfort for the GOP. Republicans tend to be more reliable primary voters than Democrats and political independents, so the Republican share of the vote is likely to be lower in most districts come November.

In 2014, for example, Republican vote share between the primary and general elections declined by an average of 1.3 percentage points. That was true of all California congressional races, excluding those where one party was shut out or where a candidate ran unopposed. Looking only at the most competitive races (again, excluding shutouts), the average decline in Republican support was 3.3 percentage points between June and November.

We’ll update this graphic as more ballots are counted.

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Election 2018

June 8, 2018 7:12 pm

With voter turnout up statewide, five California counties find new mail-in ballot system slows count

Videographer
Photo by Robbie Short for CALmatters

After years of research, months of planning and weeks of voting, the training wheels for the Voters Choice Act flew off, and county registrars and state experts are still trying to figure out what happened.

All over the state, election day is slowly morphing into election week, and counting ballots is taking longer. By tonight, some 2.5 million ballots across California had not yet been tabulated—a consequence of more voters opting to vote by mail.

But for the five California counties that implemented the state Voters Choice Act, it’s been vote-by-mail on steroids—and delayed final results.

In an effort to improve voter turnout, those counties got rid of traditional neighborhood local polling places. Instead they mailed ballots to every registered voter, who then had 11 days to cast ballots or do anything voter-related at mega-voting centers. They could place ballots in mailboxes or in an array of dropboxes scattered throughout the county.

Nonetheless many voters waited until election day on Tuesday to turn in or mail in their ballots—leaving counties overrun with ballots waiting to be processed. By state law, ballots postmarked on or before election day will be tabulated if received up to three days after the election.

The numbers suggest that voter turnout statewide will reach 36 percent—a big improvement over the record-low turnout of 25 percent statewide in the last primary midterms, in 2014.

Tuesday’s turnout was similarly higher in the five counties using the new vote-center model: Sacramento, San Mateo, Nevada, Napa and Madera. Sacramento County, the largest, had a 30 percent turnout in 2014 and appears headed for a 46 percent turnout in Tuesday’s primary.

“We had hamper after hamper of these pink bags stuffed to the brim (with ballot envelopes),” said Alice Jarboe, interim registrar of Sacramento County, adding that her staff is working 10-hour days to try to keep up.  “It is a lot of work, and when we get these huge amounts back, we just throw more temps at it.”

Californians can expect later final election results.

“I was surprised at the number of people who waited to the last minute,” said Rebecca Martinez, registrar of voters for Madera County. “I thought more people would make use of the (extra days), but I found that you still have a lot of people who still like to go someplace to vote on Tuesday.”

Inevitably, there was some confusion as voters adjusted to a new system. Some voters said they had trouble figuring out where to go to vote and when they were open. By Tuesday afternoon, Nicole Jones, 24, said she was was on her third center in Sacramento after trying to vote in person at two others accepting drop-off ballots only.

Others welcomed the voting centers and dropboxes. “This is way easier,” Stephanie Bucknam, 33, who appreciated that she didn’t have to wait in line and could just drop off her ballot. Her old precinct had been converted to a voting center, so she didn’t have to make much of an adjustment.

“Flexibility can’t hurt when you’re trying to get more people to vote,” she said. 

For voters, voting by mail is straightforward: fill out your ballot, sign it and return it.

For elections employees, it’s like an assembly line. Once they receive ballots, they scan them into the system. Someone has to verify that the signature on the ballot envelope matches the signature of the registered voter. Once the signature is verified, elections officials can separate the ballots by precinct and prepare to run them through a machine that counts the votes. There’s not one machine that does it all. With mail-in or vote-by-mail ballots, humans play a large role making sure ballots are verified, sorted and make it into the counting machine.They are also there to troubleshoot if the machine goes awry.

In Sacramento County, it takes about 80 employees to operate at capacity, and it will still take weeks to process the outstanding ballots.

Equipment can be a barrier for counties. In the state budget now being finalized, the secretary of state’s office is requesting $134 million to  cover half the cost to update all counties’ voting equipment, assuming most counties switch to the vote center model.

“There’s probably a different solutions, depending on the county,” said James Schwab, planning guru for the secretary of state’s office. “Most counties need new voting equipment, and that will speed up the counting process.”

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