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California Election 2018: Updates and Analysis

California Election 2018: Updates and Analysis

June 1, 2018

GOP now at number 3

Tim Donnelly is at the California Republican Party convention that opened today in San Diego, but he won’t be staying long. Tomorrow morning the arch-conservative candidate for Congress will be heading to the U.S.-Mexico border to “reinstate the Minutemen,” he said.

Tim Donnelly, Republican candidate in California’s 8th congressional district.

In the mid-2000’s,the “Minutemen Project” was a movement of armed vigilantes whose aim was to enforce federal immigration law. Donnelly founded the Minutemen Party in California, before becoming a Tea Party activist and serving in the state Assembly in 2011 and 2012.

Donnelly said he’d be reuniting the group somewhere along the border between San Diego and Calexico and hoped a few hundred armed compatriots would show up tomorrow.

Late last month, Donnelly issued a digital “call to arms” in response to Gov. Jerry Brown’s decision to send some national guard troops to the border, at President Trump’s request, but on the condition that they not be used to enforce immigration law.

“I basically told [Governor] Jerry Brown I dared him to come arrest me,” he said. “He wants to send our national guard down here to be delivery boys and paper pushers….They’re good enough to go to Iraq and Afghanistan and secure their borders, but not good enough to do real work here?”

Last year, Brown signed California’s “sanctuary state” bills into law, restricting the ability of local and state law-enforcement officers’ cooperation with federal immigration authorities. Donnelly characterizes the main law as a policy to “protect criminal illegal aliens,” though it does not apply to those convicted of some 800 crimes.

Donnelly’s visit to the California Republican confab comes at a challenging time for the party. According to a series of recent polls out of UC Berkeley, 56 percent of California voters support the main sanctuary law and only 31 percent approve of Trump. But among Republicans, the findings are essentially reversed: 88 percent oppose the sanctuary measure, and 80 percent approve of the president’s job performance.

Meanwhile, immigration has been one of the most galvanizing issues for the party’s base, with cities and counties across southern California passing ordinances and resolutions against the sanctuary law.

As the June primary election approaches, party leaders need to walk the line between satisfying the base and not repelling the majority of the state electorate. With the presence of outspoken nativist firebrands like Donnelly, for whom the state party is woefully soft on immigration, that’s particularly difficult.

Donnelly may be using the GOP gathering as a staging ground for his vigilante comeback, but he has no love for the party. That antipathy is especially directed at Republican congressman Paul Cook, whose seat Donnelly is trying to take. According to the website Fivethirtyeight, Cook votes with the president 98.6 percent of the time. But for Donnelly, who ran for the seat in 2016 and for governor in 2014, that’s 1.4 percentage points short of good enough.

Despite his GOP affiliation on the ballot, Donnelly said, the California Republican Party “sucks….They don’t stand for anything.”

That will come as news to the approximately 1,400 delegates in attendance this weekend. Many of them will be voting to offer the party endorsement to one of its two gubernatorial candidates, businessman John Cox and Assemblyman Travis Allen. Both candidates oppose the sanctuary policy, and Allen has made opposition to illegal immigration a hallmark of his campaign.

For Donnelly, neither candidate is strong enough. “It’s a missed opportunity,” he said.

Want to submit a reader reaction? You can find our submission guidelines here. Please contact Dan Morain with any questions, dmorain@calmatters.org, (916) 201.6281.

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Election 2018

Oct. 19, 2018 8:18 am

Majority Report: Two debates is better than one edition

Election Reporter
Congressman Dana Rohrabacher speaks to the Newport Beach City Council. Photo by Sam Gangwer (SCNG)

An attack ad is called “breathtakingly gross.” A political scheme is declared “over the line.” And one award-winning journalist is called a “hack” while the cameras roll. Here’s a quick recap of what happened this week across California’s 53 congressional districts.

1. Blue wave or not, Dems are making it rain

How to sum up the latest congressional fundraising numbers published by the Federal Elections Commission?

One Republican consultant did it for a reporter with five words: “We’re getting our asses kicked.”

As Politico reports, Democratic challengers outraised Republican incumbent members of Congress in 92 districts across the country, a financing mismatch with “no historical precedent.” Of those 92 Democrats, three in California raised more than $3 million: Josh Harder, Katie Hill and Harley Rouda.

The day after the lopsided finance figures went live, the national GOP responded. In the north Central Valley district represented by Republican Jeff Denham, the National Republican Congressional Committee dropped an $800,000 attack ad against Democrat Josh Harder.

Expect more to come.

But it’s not just the size of the haul that counts. CALmatters’ Dan Morain crunched the numbers and found that the Democrats running in the seven Republican districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 are vastly outraising their GOP counterparts among donors who give less than $200. That has value beyond the dollars and cents, writes Morain. Popularity among small-dollar donors can often indicate where the grassroots enthusiasm lies.

Learn more about the most competitive congressional races and everything on the state ballot with the CALmatters voter guide.

2. Speaking of getting hosed…

If Proposition 6 doesn’t pass, Republican congressional candidate Diane Harkey is going to need a new pair of shoes.

At a rally in support of the state ballot measure, which would roll back a recent gas tax increase, she warned that higher prices at the pump will incentivize more Californians to use other forms of transportation.

Though she had a different way of putting it.

“It’s forcing you to take bikes, get on trains, hose off at the depot and try to get to work,” she said, in a video captured by a KPBS reporter. “That does not work. That does not work with my hair and heels. I cannot do that and I will not do that.”

The event, which also included state Senate Minority Leader Patricia Bates, a Republican from Laguna Niguel, will kick off a statewide “Yes on 6” tour. They’ll make their way across California by bus.

3. Rouda and Rohrabacher’s debate squared

Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and Democratic businessman Harley Rouda locked horns in two consecutive debates this week. One was the formal discussion focused on policy issues of national importance, the other was a pre-event fight about cribsheets.

According to a summary by Voice of OC, the proper debate, hosted by InsideOC’s Rick Reiff, touched on Russian interference in the 2016 election, whether “Dreamers” (undocumented immigrants brought to the country as minors) should be granted permanent legal status, and whether undocumented immigrants should be given access to Medicare.

Though Rohrabacher won his last election by nearly 17 percentage points in a district where registered Republicans far outnumber Democrats, recent polls show the two candidates in a dead heat.

Rouda, not surprisingly, used his final statement to ask certain voters to put their partisan allegiances aside.

‘More than anything, forget if…there’s a D or an R next to either of our names,” he said. “Vote for the person who has the character that you deserve in Congress.”

While the head-to-head won’t be aired on PBS SoCal until Sunday at 5 p.m., a pre-debate debate caught on tape is drawing attention.

Apparently it all came down to a disagreement over whether the candidates were allowed to bring prepared notes. Rouda’s staff claimed that Rohrabacher was in violation of an agreement that his campaign had arrived at with the InsideOC staff beforehand. Reiff, the show’s host, said he did not recall making such a rule.

 

“He doesn’t remember it and you do—that sounds familiar, doesn’t it?” said Rohrabacher, in an apparent reference to the sexual assault allegations against Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Rohrabacher was ultimately allowed to keep his notes and though Rouda did not follow through with a threat to pull out of the event altogether, feelings were still raw among some of his campaign staffers. Communications Director Jack d’Annibale ended the exchange by calling Reiff, who shared a 1987 Pulitzer Prize at the Akron Beacon Journal, “a hack.”

4. Too close for comfort

Last fall, a public affairs firm working against the repeal of a recent increase in the state gas tax discussed the possibility of “targeting” vulnerable Republican congressional candidates with the state’s transportation agency.

In emails uncovered by the Associated Press, a partner with the Sacramento-based Bicker, Castillo & Fairbanks notified the state agency’s deputy communications secretary that the firm was planning to publish a series of newspaper opinion pieces going after Jeff Denham, Steve Knight, Mimi Walters and Darrell Issa. Issa has since announced that he will not be seeking re-election.

The agency spokesperson responded by suggesting the agency help find an author in Issa’s district. The agency did not follow through with the suggestion. Still, that level of coordination between an advocacy organization and a state agency is “way over the line,” Jessica Levinson, a professor at Loyola Law School, told the A.P.

“I don’t want to say it’s a smoking gun, but that is so much more explicit than I ever would have predicted they would be,” she said.

5. “Remarkably, breathtakingly gross”

And it wouldn’t be a roundup of California congressional news without the latest unseemliness out of California’s 50th.

This week, Rep. Duncan Hunter Jr., the San Diego County Republican under federal indictment for dipping into campaign cash for extravagant personal use, quadrupled down on his unfounded claim that his Democratic opponent represents a threat to national security.

In downtown San Diego,  Hunter Sr., the embattled congressman’s father and a former member of Congress himself, held a press conference in front of the USS Midway Museum suggesting that Ammar Campa-Najjar would “pass along military information” to his Palestinian family members.

Maya Sweedler on Twitter

I’m here with former congressman Duncan Hunter Sr, father of the incumbent congressman on California’s 50th district, in front of the USS Mission in San Diego as Mr. Hunter repeats his son’s attacks on Democratic opponent Ammar Campa-Najjar.

Separately, three retired Marine Corps generals wrote a letter warning that Campa-Najjar “represents a national security risk.” The letter was distributed to voters by the Hunter campaign.

Campa-Najjar, who obtained a federal security clearance as a former Department of Labor employee, is of mixed Mexican and Palestinian descent. Though his grandfather was a high-ranking member of the terrorist organization responsible for the Munich Olympic games massacre, Campa-Najjar has said that he never met his grandfather and has repeatedly denounced him.

It remains to be seen whether Hunter’s strategy—questioning his political opponent’s religious faith (Campa-Najjar is a Christian, for what it’s worth) and dredging up his dark family history—will convince the Republican-leaning members of his district to overlook his own legal woes and alleged ethical missteps. But outside San Diego County, Hunter’s tactics have been described as “breathtaking”—and not in a good way.

As one Daily Beast reporter put it on Twitter, “Even in this insane political time, a congressman who grifted veterans to buy golf supplies accusing his Arab Christian opponent of being a terrorist is remarkably, breathtakingly gross.”

Ditto from the Washington Post editorial board, which labeled a recent video from the Hunter team, “the most vile political ad of this year’s midterm elections.”

Which must be a pretty high bar.

Want to submit a reader reaction? You can find our submission guidelines here. Please contact Dan Morain with any questions, dmorain@calmatters.org, (916) 201.6281.

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Election 2018

Oct. 18, 2018 10:27 am

VIDEO: Tony Thurmond, Marshall Tuck on California’s public school system

Videographer
Tony Thurmond and Marshall Tuck
Candidates for Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and Marshall Tuck

In less than two weeks, Californians decide who will lead public education in the state. Tony Thurmond and Marshall Tuck, both Democrats, are vying to be the next Superintendent of Public Instruction, in a race that has drawn tens of millions of dollars in campaign money and evolved into a proxy battle between organized labor and education reformers.

Thurmond, a current member of the Assembly and former social worker, is backed by the state’s teachers unions. And Tuck, a former executive at a nonprofit public school partnership and a charter school network, has the support of nonprofit charter school advocates.

CALmatters’ reporters interviewed both candidates for our in-depth voter guide. Here’s a video comparing their positions on charter schools, teacher tenure, why they’re qualified for the job, and the issues facing California’s public schools.

All of this in less than 10 minutes.

Candidates Tony Thurmond, Marshall Tuck on California’s public schools

Candidates Tony Thurmond and Marshall Tuck discuss the future of California schools and why they are best qualified to be the next Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Learn more about the candidates and watch their full interviews on our in-depth elections guide.

Want to submit a reader reaction? You can find our submission guidelines here. Please contact Dan Morain with any questions, dmorain@calmatters.org, (916) 201.6281.

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Election 2018

Oct. 17, 2018 5:42 pm

Democrats get big bucks from small-dollar donors

Senior Editor
In California, small-dollar donations are mostly going to Democrats.

In any campaign, big money players get the most attention. But Democrats running in California’s seven most competitive congressional districts are vastly outraising Republicans in small-dollar donations, according to a review of campaign money compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

It’s a display of voter enthusiasm that can pay long-term dividends for beneficiaries.

Overall, Democratic candidates running in the seven GOP-held seats where Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in 2016 have raised $40 million to the Republicans’ $18.7 million. That’s a stunning turn of fortune from 2016 when Republicans running in those seats raised $17.7 million to the Democrats’ $5.7 million.

Democrats running in those seven districts raised $6.4 million in donations of less than $200, almost 10 times the $671,000 raised by Republicans through the first three quarters of 2018, campaign finance reports show. 

“There has never been anything like this,” said Democratic strategist Bill Burton, who is involved in several congressional races in California. “Regular grassroots Americans are saying they want change in dozens of races across the country.”

Some examples:

  • Altogether, Republican Congressman Jeff Denham of Turlock raised $4.1 million to Democratic challenger Josh Harder’s $6 million.
  • Only 1.6 percent of Denham’s money is in small-dollar donations, while nearly 18 percent of Harder’s came in small amounts.
  • Republican Congressman Steve Knight of Palmdale raised $2.1 million, but less than 2 percent has come in small increments.
  • Knight’s Democratic challenger Katie Hill raised $6.26 million, including 21 percent in increments of less than $200.

Republicans have used outside spending funded by wealthy donors as an equalizer, although Democratic groups and funders including the League of Conservation Voters and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg are spending heavily to flip seats.

Donors who give less than $200 aren’t identified by name in federal disclosures, and may not live in the candidates’ district. But candidates know who they are, collect their email addresses and regularly send them solicitations.

Not all donors can afford to give the maximum $2,700 under federal law. But candidates can return to small-dollar donors multiple times to help fuel their campaign efforts, ranging from television ads to get-out-the-vote drives. They also know that people who give money vote and volunteer, if not for them then for candidates in their home districts.

The phenomenon extends to districts where no Democratic expert thinks Democratic challengers have any prayer of winning.

Democrat Audrey Denney has outraised Republican Congressman Doug LaMalfa of Richvale in a deep red district in far Northern California, $888,000 to LaMalfa’s $810,000. Almost 40 percent of Denney’s money, $350,000, has come in small increments, compared with 2.8 percent of LaMalfa’s money.

There are Republican exceptions, much of it Trump-related:

  • Little known Republican Omar Navarro raised $546,000 in small sums in his long-shot challenge against Democratic Congresswoman Maxine Waters of Los Angeles. She and Trump regularly tangle.
  • Tulare County Congressman Devin Nunes has used his close alliance with Trump to raise his profile nationally, and to raise money—$10.5 million for this election, almost half of it in small-dollar donations. Challenger Andrew Janz has raised 54 percent of his $7.2 million from small donors in the first half of the year.
  • Republican Congressman Tom McClintock of Elk Grove raised 24 percent of his $1.5 million from small donors. McClintock, whose tenure in office dates to 1982, has cultivated his list of GOP regulars for decades.

Overall, however, challenger Jessica Morse has outraised McClintock, pulling in $2.8 million.

Want to submit a reader reaction? You can find our submission guidelines here. Please contact Dan Morain with any questions, dmorain@calmatters.org, (916) 201.6281.

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