California Election 2018: Updates and Analysis
Republican Assemblyman Travis Allen has raised nearly $1.2 million in his race to become California’s next governor and sold himself as a Forever-Trumper who will “make California great again.”
With a 273-character, President Donald Trump may have just dashed Allen’s hopes—and complicated the path Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa has to become one of two finalists who will advance from the June primary onto the November ballot.
California finally deserves a great Governor, one who understands borders, crime and lowering taxes. John Cox is the man – he’ll be the best Governor you’ve ever had. I fully endorse John Cox for Governor and look forward to working with him to Make California Great Again!
President Trump’s endorsement of San Diego-area businessman John Cox is designed to help unite a fractured party base around a single candidate leading up to the June 5 primary, making a general election showdown with Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom much more likely. Trump and California’s congressional Republicans want to ensure that California Republicans have a top-of-the-ticket reason to turn out in November—if they don’t, it could cost the party some key congressional districts, and ultimately, hand over control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats.
Nonetheless, Republican unity wasn’t much in evidence as Allen and his conservatives backers railed against the endorsement—awarded despite the fact that Cox acknowledges he voted for a Libertarian candidate against Trump in the 2016 general election. (Cox now says he was wrong not to back Trump and praises his performance in the White House.) Speaking to reporters late Friday, Allen
Under California law, only the first and second place winners in the primary will advance to the general election ballot. Recent polls show Newsom well ahead of the rest of the pack, with Cox narrowly holding onto second place. Nearly one-in-five voters remain undecided.
At a debate earlier this month, Newsom was asked which candidate he would prefer to face in the general election. “A Republican would be ideal,” he said. It now looks a bit more likely that he’ll get his wish.
My opponent, @TheRealJohnHCox has been endorsed by his hero, Donald Trump. More important than ever that CA stands up for our values and stands against Trump, his protégé, and their attempts to drag our state backwards. Find out where and how to vote at: https://t.co/ERUeZPk9K0 https://t.co/20WyHpE7cV
Trump isn’t exactly known for rewarding people who haven’t been loyal to him, but his endorsement of Cox follows that of many Republican members of the Congress from California, including House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield—a Trump confidant the president refers to as “my Kevin.” Earlier this month, the California Republican Party failed to endorse either Cox or Allen at their annual convention in San Diego.
The question now is whether a presidential tweet can do what roughly 1,000 GOP delegates couldn’t. Despite low approval numbers statewide, 84 percent of Republican likely voters approve of the President, according to a recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. If the majority follow the president’s endorsement, that is almost certain to propel Cox to one of the top two spots in the primary.
“I am honored and deeply grateful to my President and I am looking forward to working with him to make California great again,” Cox said in a statement.
On a conference call tonight, Allen told his supporters to “remember what God told Gideon”—evoking the Biblical story in which God helps Israelites defeat foes not “by the hand of man” but by divine intervention. “We do not have the hand of man with us,” he said. “We have the Republican establishment firmly against us!”
The new dynamic in the race is likely to prompt Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, and his backers develop a counter-strategy to undercut Cox. Thus far Villaraigosa has raised over $10 million in campaign dollars—but his mega-wealthy donors like Netflix CEO Reed Hastings and Los Angeles developer Eli Broad have poured nearly $20 million to support his quest for a top-two spot.
Treasurer John Chiang, the former superintendent of public instruction, Delaine Eastin, and over 20 other candidates are all also hoping to become governor.
Many Allen supporters, including a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, took to Twitter to vent:
Learn more about John Cox in our CALmatters voter guide. Here’s a glimpse:
Two years from now, California voters may have a chance to touch the third rail of state politics.
A coalition of good-government groups, social justice organizations, affordable housing advocates and teachers unions held press conferences across the state today announcing they had submitted signatures for a measure that would significantly increase property taxes on California businesses and generates tens of billions in revenue for local and state governments. If it qualifies for the 2020 ballot—which it likely will—it would mark the first time in decades that voters would have a chance to change a key provision in Proposition 13, the landmark 1978 ballot measure that placed stringent caps on California property taxes, making them some of the lowest in the country for both residential and commercial property.
What would this initiative actually do?
California treats commercial and residential property almost identically when it comes to taxes. In most cases, Prop. 13 allows properties to be reassessed for tax purposes only when they are sold to a new buyer. That means that a homeowner and the Target down the street (assuming Target owns that land) pay taxes on the value of the property when they acquired it, not at its current market value. That’s a huge discount for both homeowners and businesses, especially those who bought property a long time ago in a pricey area.
This initiative would treat California commercial property different than residential property, a concept in the Prop 13 wonk world known as “split roll.” Under the proposal, businesses would have their properties reassessed to market values every three years or less. Nothing would change for residential properties—the most untouchable part of Prop. 13. Commercial properties would still be taxed at 1 percent of their value.
Who’s behind it, and what do they want?
Backers include good-government groups like the League of Women Voters, social justice groups like the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment and some prominent state and local teachers’ unions. Big money has come from Bay Area philanthropic organizations such as the San Francisco Foundation and the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative (yes, that Zuckerberg). The California Teachers’ Association, one of the most powerful labor unions in the state, has not endorsed the initiative.
More than anything else, proponents want the revenue that would be generated from “split roll.” Prop. 13 has long been criticized for starving local governments by denying them a steady revenue source. Proponents estimate that altering this part of Prop. 13 would provide $11.4 billion annually for state and local governments, with about $4.5 billion going to schools.
Who opposes it, and why?
The California business community writ large, including organizations like the California Chamber of Commerce and anti-tax groups like the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. They argue that at best, increased property taxes would simply be passed on to consumers, and at worst, businesses would reduce employment or shut their doors entirely and flee to other states. The cost of doing business in California is already high—this would make it even more difficult to squeeze a profit.
This won’t be on the ballot for 2 years—why should I care now?
Because even though you may not be voting on this until 2020, the political repercussions start now. Changing Prop. 13 is still an uphill fight—one that dissuaded advocates from their initial plan to place the initiative on this fall’s ballot. But the pro-split roll camp can proudly boast that they collected 800,000 signatures, and received a big bankroll to do so. A recent USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll found that 54 percent of Californians said they would support the measure. The core of Prop. 13—property tax initiatives for homeowners—is obviously a much tougher fight than targeting commercial properties.
The prospect of split roll on the 2020 ballot could also induce legislative action at the Capitol. Leading gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom has voiced lukewarm support for the concept, but has repeatedly stated that Prop. 13 reform should be part of a “broader conversation on tax reform in the state.” With both legislators and special interests eager to avoid a costly battle at the ballot box, the initiative could spur action for a broader compromise well before voters get a chance to weigh in.
In probably the strangest outcome of California’s elections so far this year, a new state senator was sworn in Monday—with just three weeks left to go in the legislative session.
Vanessa Delgado, a Democrat from Montebello, was elected last week to replace former Sen. Tony Mendoza, who resigned in February after an investigation found he likely harassed several young employees.
But voters had two chances to vote for Delgado this year—once to complete the remainder of Mendoza’s term and again to serve a new four-year term that begins in December—and in an odd twist, they chose her only to fulfill the rest of the current term. That means Delgado will serve as a senator for just three-and-a-half months.
“This is an unexpected result, but it’s what the voters decided,” she said in a brief interview after being sworn in while her parents and 15-year-old daughter looked on.
Delgado, a real estate developer who resigned as Montebello mayor to join the Legislature, will be the shortest-serving state senator in more than a century, according to legislative historian Alex Vassar. (The last time a senator served a shorter term was in 1903, Vassar said, when Orrin Z. Hubbell served 15 weeks before he died.)
Delgado arrived in Sacramento Monday as the Legislature begins the most consequential final three weeks of the legislative year, a time when lobbying is intense and lawmakers face tough decisions on hundreds of bills. In September she’ll return to the district in southeast Los Angeles County and work on constituent issues until Dec. 2. Then—poof—her time as a senator will be done.
The man who hopes to replace Delgado on Dec. 3 was also in Sacramento Monday. Democrat Bob Archuleta, who faces Republican Rita Topalian on the November ballot, mingled with lobbyists and Democratic senators at a campaign fundraiser near the Capitol, just minutes before Delgado began her super-short term.
Gavin Newsom has raised more than $22 million for his run for governor. Patrick Wright hopes he notices one donation of $125 from his Ferret PAC.
Wright, who answers his phone “Ferrets Anonymous,” has been on a mission for 25 years to persuade California’s legislators to legalize ferrets as pets, without success. He hopes Newsom will change that if he is elected governor.
Wright told me: “He accepted the money. Sometimes they return it. I got a nice thank you note.”
Then again, the Newsom campaign has not returned Wright’s calls or responded to his pleading tweets. Wright also approached Republican John Cox, Newsom’s opponent, at a campaign stop at Rudfords Diner in San Diego, and asked for his support:
“He looked at me like I had three eyes.”
State scientists and environmentalists oppose legalizing ferrets, believing they will escape and do what their cousins the weasels do: reproduce and hunt prey, including burrowing birds and other native critters. Although Newsom’s spokesman opted against discussing the topic in any detail, Wright should not count on Newsom reversing that stand.
This story originally appeared in WhatMatters, our daily roundup of the most important policy and politics news in California. Subscribe here.