Photo illustration by John Osborn D'Agostino

California Election 2018: Updates and Analysis

Election 2018

April 9, 2018 5:39 pm

Villaraigosa raised a bundle in March—but then there’s the bad news

Antonio Villaraigosa

Good news for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa: He had his biggest fund-raising month in his campaign for governor, at $1.4 million in chunks of $1,000 or more in March.

Bad news for Villaraigosa: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom also had his biggest month, raising $1.7 million in March in donations of $1,000 or more.

Either way, it’s dreadful news for their fellow Democrat, Treasurer John Chiang. He raised $327,000 in March in increments of $1,000 or more, based on my tabulation of Secretary of State campaign finance data.

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Republican John Cox raised $60,000 and change, but has been putting his own millions into the campaign. Yet to be seen is how much more money Cox will spend as he seeks to gain a spot in the June 5 top-two primary, and whether wealthy individuals will rain money in the form of independent campaigns on behalf of the other candidates.

Note: This post was corrected to show the fundraising totals were for March.

Senior Editor
Election 2018

April 16, 2018 4:13 pm

Retro-Republican from a pre-Trump era: John Cox in second place, for now

Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox, photo by Judy Lin for CALmatters
Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox, photo by Judy Lin for CALmatters

John Cox wants to slash the California income tax—abolish it, if possible. Maybe you disagree, but he thinks he can convince you.

“I don’t know why Texas and Florida have no income taxes and we do,” he said, during a recent conversation at CALmatters. “Texas, you know, is growing. Florida is growing. They’re getting tons of businesses and tons of people moving there that we could use here in California.”

As the leading Republican candidate for governor, he’s got other big ideas for reform—bold and seemingly far-fetched in California’s current political climate. He wants to revamp the Legislature by dividing the state into 12,000 neighborhood-sized districts, which he insists will take the corrosive influence of monied special interests out of politics.

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He also wants to give education vouchers to private school students and enable more home schooling.

How should the state solve its housing shortage? Cut environmental regulations, he said. What about the plight of mentally ill homeless? Charities and non-profits can and will lead the way, not the state. What book should every Californian read? No surprise there: “Free to Choose” by the libertarian economist, Milton Friedman.

Cox hails from a school of conservatism, marked by a bright-eyed confidence in the power of unregulated markets to lift all boats, that almost feels like a throwback in the Trump era.

In fact, Cox didn’t support the president in 2016, voting instead for the Libertarian Party candidate, Gary Johnson. That’s a fact that Cox’s Republican competitor in the race, Assemblyman Travis Allen from Huntington Beach, is constantly reminding voters. Cox says he regrets that decision now, but he clearly draws his cues from an older strain of Republican: President Ronald Reagan and the football player-turned-supply side loving congressman Jack Kemp. Cox sat on Kemp’s national steering committee when he ran for president in the late 1980s and often introduces himself on the campaign trail a “Jack Kemp conservative.” The resemblance is clear. Like Kemp, Cox seems earnest, cheerful and he’s unflinchingly optimistic that in the end, the right ideas—namely, his—will win the day.

You’d have to be optimistic to run for governor of California as a conservative Republican in 2018. But Cox—who has lost previous bids to be elected to Congress, the U.S. Senate and the White House—says he’s already planning his first term in Sacramento.

“There’s a lot of mismanagement and a lot of improvements I could make,” he said. “I’m going to have fun turning around this state.”

A Republican hasn’t been elected to statewide office in California since 2006. Registered independents may soon outnumber registered Republicans. The president is historically unpopular and the Democratic base is riled up. But Cox has never been discouraged by long odds. In his native Illinois, he ran for Congress and came in fifth in the Republican primary. Then he ran for Senate in 2002 and 2004, losing twice. In 2008, when he ran for President on a promise to abolish the Internal Revenue Service, he wasn’t even invited to any of the presidential debates.

Now the deep-pocketed businessman is running again, and has done surprisingly well up to now: The most recent polls show Cox in second-place behind Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom. But the guy in third place, Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa, just got a huge political lift—charter school backers intend to pour more than $8 million into his effort to bump off Cox and secure one of the top-two slots that will put him on the November ballot.

Granted, Californians split across six candidates—four Democrats and two Republicans—Cox was able to pull into the number two spot with only 15 percent of the likely vote. Maybe that modest success is due to Cox’s ability to spend more than many of his opponents. Maybe it’s because he’s the conservative in the race who isn’t Allen, a firebrand who has built his campaign around his support of President Trump and his opposition to illegal immigration. Cox has his own explanation.

At the meeting, Cox told a story of how he had struck up a conversation with an airport security guard that morning. After telling him about his plans to cut taxes and regulations, Cox said, he won the TSA agent’s support on the spot. “The woman in front of him in line heard this whole discussion and she said the same thing!” he said. “People just want something to change.”

Election Reporter
Election 2018

April 15, 2018 3:15 pm

Running to replace the governor, Gavin Newsom embraces Jerry Brown—at arm’s length

It’s hard to run as the change agent in the California governor’s race when you’re the state’s second-ranking elected leader. But Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is giving it his best shot.

Since launching his bid for governor in early 2015 (arguably, since he was first elected to the position of lieutenant governor five years earlier), Newsom has championed himself as the more progressive, fierier alternative to Gov. Jerry Brown. That’s been a fine line to walk on the campaign trail where Newsom, a Democrat and the front-runner in a crowded gubernatorial field, has been selective about which components of Brown’s legacy to embrace and which to jettison.

On climate change policy, K-12 education funding reform, and the expansion of Medi-Cal, Newsom is happy to bear the imprint of the current administration. On single-payer health care, higher education funding, homelessness, and universal pre-school? “With respect”—as Newsom often says when he disagrees with someone—not so much.

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That’s a balance that Newsom struck during a recent visit to CALmatters. In some cases, he paid homage to Brown, who remains popular with a majority California voters, according to a new poll. In others, he highlighted his areas of disagreement.

Sometimes he did both at once. Read more:

Election Reporter
Election 2018

April 11, 2018 6:26 pm

Facebook to stop spending money against California privacy measure

As Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrapped up a second day being grilled by Congress about whether the company adequately protects the personal data of its 2 billion users, news broke in California that Facebook will stop spending money to oppose a privacy measure aiming for the state’s November ballot.

Facebook is one of five tech companies that have contributed $200,000 a piece to a committee that is fighting the California Consumer Privacy Act, which would allow Californians to prohibit companies from selling or sharing their personal data. Opponents—which include Google, AT&T, Comcast, Verizon, the Internet Association and the California Chamber of Commerce—argue that the measure would be disastrous for the internet economy and cause problems by subjecting one state to a different set of rules on the global network.

Supporters of the measure funded by San Francisco real estate developer Alastair Mactaggart have seized on recent news that Facebook allowed the data of more than 80 million users to be accessed by a political consulting firm tied to Donald Trump’s campaign. In one recent publicity stunt, the campaign hand-delivered a letter to Facebook asking it to stop fighting the privacy measure. Did it actually work?

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“We’re gratified that Facebook has dropped its opposition to the California Consumer Privacy Act. Now that they have seen the error of their ways, we hope they will work with us proactively to protect the personal information of all Californians, and support us publicly and financially,” said a statement from Mactaggart, the initiative’s proponent.

A spokesman for the campaign against the measure said Facebook continues to oppose the privacy initiative; it just decided not to give any more money to the committee fighting it.

“The proposed measure simply disconnects California. It is unworkable,” said a statement from spokesman Steve Maviglio. “That is why we will continue to proceed with an aggressive campaign, including major announcements of new opposition in the next few weeks.”

And in case you’re wondering about that $200,000 contribution: Maviglio said Facebook did not ask for a refund.

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