In summary

Gov. Newsom’s robust defeat of the recall gives him a head start in the 2022 gubernatorial election.

Lea este artículo en español.

Gov. Gavin Newsom is keeping his job after months spent lambasting the California recall as a Republican power grab; feverishly fundraising, wooing likely supporters and wrangling fractious progressive activists; sweating the odd, unexpectedly close poll; fusing policymaking and politicking; and calling upon big-name D.C. Democrats to come stump out west

And after all that, the Sept. 14 recall wasn’t close. After initial returns showed the recall failing by a nearly two-to-one margin, the Associated Press and TV networks quickly called the race for Newsom. In certified results released Oct. 22, the recall failed 61.9% to 38.1%, basically the same margin Newsom won by in November 2018.

Now begins a new contest: To spin the results most favorably for the 2022 election — which starts right now. 

For Newsom and his political team, the last six months of campaigning offer an electoral blueprint to seek four more years. 

The governor’s victory ought to demonstrate to Democrats, both in California and elsewhere, the power of “showing what the alternative is,” said Newsom campaign spokesperson Nathan Click.

“So much of what we’ve tried to do — from branding it the ‘Republican recall’ to talking a lot about Larry Elder and all the other candidates’ opposition to vaccine mandates and mask mandates — we’re trying to show what’s behind door number 2,” he said. “We were telling the story of what would happen if we weren’t in charge and the other guys were — and I think that’s really powerful.”

The campaign was nothing if not consistent on that point. On Monday, President Joe Biden jetted to California to make the closing argument against the recall at a campaign rally in Long Beach. Though he praised the governor’s leadership during the pandemic, the president spent the bulk of his speech hammering Elder, a conservative talk show host and Newsom’s top Republican rival, whom Biden described as “the clone of Donald Trump.”

Biden’s visit — along with pit stops by Vice President Kamala Harris and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren — offer another obvious lesson, said Bill Wong, political director of the state Assembly Democrats. “Every campaign from here on out, at least for the immediate future, is going to be nationalized with regard to running against the Republican agenda,” he said.

Newsom holds big leads over potential Republican challengers in 2022, according to a new poll released on Sept. 17. He leads Elder 52% to 30%, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer by 49% to 27%, his 2018 opponent John Cox by 51% to 26% and Assemblymember Kevin Kiley by 50% to 25%, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey.

No Democratic challenger?

Juan Rodriguez, manager of the anti-recall campaign, said the unusually high Democratic turnout in a special election, which allowed Newsom to stay in office, amounts to “a rejection of the conventional wisdom.” 

Running on public health restrictions, elevating contentious national issues and talking about former President Trump — the campaign “can really be a case study that should be looked at closely for how to get people energized,” he said.

The fear of Elder, and Newsom’s relentless characterization of the election as a “Republican recall,” likely did help keep the vote “no” coalition together. Whatever reservations voters might have had with the governor, “the potential damage by a Trump-loving Republican in the governor’s office” rallied most Democrats behind Newsom, said Amar Shergill, chairperson of the California Democratic Party’s progressive caucus.

But the time for playing nice is now over, he said.

“I don’t think the governor or his adviser circle are so naive as to think that a big win and the defeat of the recall election is going to result in smooth sailing through the next election,” said Shergill. He said he and other progressive activists plan to begin lobbying the governor “to hold fast to his promise” to push forward a state-run universal health insurance program. 

“You ignore the progressive movement at your own peril,” Shergill added.

But Rose Kapolczynski, a Democratic political strategist, said Newsom faces no serious risks as he prepares to run for re-election next year — certainly not from within his own party.

Imagine this, she said: “Progressive congressmember X decides to run against Gavin Newsom because he still hasn’t enacted single-payer health care. The first thing that everyone’s going to see is that progressive congressmember X urged all of his supporters to vote no on the recall and save Gavin Newsom.”

GOP renaissance or last gasp?

Kapolczynski said she doesn’t see much of a threat coming from Republicans, either.

In 2020, the state GOP won four congressional seats, in part by running a more ethnically diverse and ideologically expansive crop of candidates. “Larry Elder comes along and destroys all that work by reminding people how extreme some Republicans are,” she said. 

The emergence of Elder as a leading candidate was an “absolute boon” for Newsom, said Garry South, also a Democratic political consultant. It transformed what could have been a faceless referendum on the governor’s record into a strictly partisan standoff between a generally popular Democratic governor and a specific Republican.

In other words, it turned it into exactly the kind of election Newsom will likely face next November. It also helped that Elder is a firebrand who “is so out of sync with Californians he might as well be living in outer space,” South added.

Harmeet Dhillon, a California member of the Republican National Committee, said she doubts a different candidate would have been any less polarizing, only because Democrats would have been equally vociferous in their criticisms. 

If Faulconer, who positioned himself as a relative moderate in the race, “set the electorate on fire and had Larry Elder not gotten into the race, you would have still seen Kevin Faulconer painted as some kind of Hitler,” she said.

Rodriguez with the No campaign stopped short of that comparison, but agreed that Elder wasn’t unique. “Whether it was Larry Elder, John Cox or Kevin Faulconer, they all represent a view of the world empowered by the national Republican Party,” he said. “It’s all an example of Trumpism.”

It remains unclear which Republican, if anyone, could mount a credible challenge against Newsom. 

Elder had vowed to run again; Tuesday, he called himself a “political force.” “We may have lost the battle, but we are going to win the war,” he told supporters.

But in post-recall interviews, he has acknowledged the long odds he’d face head-to-head against Newsom in reliably Democratic California. “So it’s hard for me to see, were I to have a rematch, that the outcome would be a whole lot different,” Elder told “Inside California Politics.” “But I may change my mind over the next coming days.” 

Republican conservative radio show host Larry Elder speaks at a rally for the California gubernatorial recall election on Sept. 13, 2021, in Monterey Park. Photo by Ringo H.W. Chiu, AP Photo

Elder’s emergence, however, has humbled much of the GOP bench, including Faulconer, Cox and Kiley

Elder had 48% of the vote among replacement candidates, with Democratic political novice Kevin Paffrath a distant second with 9.6%. GOP contenders Faulconer, Cox and Kiley had a combined total of just 15.6%.

Faulconer told supporters in San Diego on election night that he would spend time considering his next steps. But he has been raising money for a possible 2022 gubernatorial campaign all year and ended his speech with some foreshadowing: “Tonight was round 1. There’s more to come.”

Matt Rexroad, a political consultant who tends to work for moderate Republicans, said it’s not all doom and gloom for the state’s second largest party. A Republican isn’t likely to occupy the governor’s office anytime soon, but that was never very likely in California. Newsom “is going to sleepwalk into 2022; it’s going to be a yawner,” Rexroad conceded. 

Newsom, who had a huge money advantage for the recall, is sitting on a $23 million nest egg for the 2022 campaign, according to the most recent state filing. 

But a snoozer of a gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket coupled with a network of pro-recall activists still fuming across the state could result in the kind of GOP-heavy turnout that midterm victories in congressional and legislative races are made of, he said. 

The Republican Party “has used this opportunity to rally the troops,” he said. “And this energy could be used to pick up some seats in the Legislature or in Congress.”

“What’s the best thing that happened to the Democratic Party in 2018?” asked Rexroad, referring to the “blue wave” midterms in which Democrats flipped 41 congressional seats, including eight in California. “Probably how much they hated Donald Trump.”

The recall’s lingering impact

As early as Monday, some recall candidates were tamping down expectations, reminding supporters that no matter the outcome, the fact that the recall campaign got as far as it did should count as its own success.

Kiley said the grassroots organizations that sprouted up across the state to boost the recall effort will remain an electoral force to reckon with in the coming months. “The idea that this is somehow a mandate, that Californians are endorsing (Newsom’s) failed leadership, is pretty far-fetched,” he said. He declined to say whether he plans to run for governor again next year. 

“This energy could be used to pick up some seats in the Legislature or in Congress.”

Matt Rexroad, a political consultant for republicans

Elder has taken a less holistic view of the recall results. Even before the polls closed, the candidate had begun to suggest, à la former President Trump in 2020, that the recall defeat, even in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one, could only be the result of fraud.

But in his election night speech, Elder made no mention of electoral shenanigans. He conceded defeat and urged supporters at his Costa Mesa campaign headquarters to be “gracious in defeat.”

Still, Elder’s earlier decision to take a page from the former president’s handbook is only the latest indication that conspiracy theorizing about election results has found a permanent home in the Republican Party — even in California. 

And while the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 showed the danger of questioning the democratic process, for California Republicans hoping to emerge from the recall invigorated, the politics might be lousy, too. 

Political parties in democracies are supposed to be self-correcting. Those that are punished at the polls are incentivized to come up with a better message or a more appealing set of ideas, said David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, which advocates for more expansive and secure election policies. 

Attributing failure to fraud will get in the way of that necessary self-reflection. “A party that misdiagnoses the reason behind its electoral defeat is very unlikely to fix itself,” he said.

CalMatters reporter Mikhail Zinshteyn contributed to this story.

We want to hear from you

Want to submit a guest commentary or reaction to an article we wrote? You can find our submission guidelines here. Please contact CalMatters with any commentary questions: commentary@calmatters.org

Ben Christopher

Ben covers California politics and elections. Prior to that, he was a contributing writer for CalMatters reporting on the state's economy and budget. Based out of the San Francisco Bay Area, he has written...