Where do the voters stand?

A screengrab from an ad featuring California Gov. Gavin Newsom by No on Prop 30. Image via YouTube
A screengrab from an ad featuring Gov. Gavin Newsom by No on Prop 30. Image via YouTube


The share of likely voters who oppose the measure in a new statewide poll released Wednesday night

Only 41% said they support Prop. 30 in the Public Policy Institute of California survey, conducted in mid-October. Another 7% said they are still undecided. (The margin of error on the sample of 1,111 likely voters is plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.)

That’s a dramatic reversal from polling in late September, which still showed a 49% to 37% lead for the “Yes” side. That suggests that the “No” campaign — specifically its decision to trumpet the opposition of the state’s popular governor — is having its intended effect. While most Democrats in the new poll still back Prop. 30, most other voter groups are now opposed.  

More bad news for supporters of the measure: As Election Day approaches, public support for propositions tends to decline as undecided voters err on the side of “no.”

In two polls released Nov. 4, however, slightly more voters favored Prop. 30: 47% to 41% in a Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, and 53% to 47% in a USC Schwarzenegger Institute survey.