How will this year’s election play out? Here’s what insiders say

With Election Day creeping closer, state political insiders have cast their predictions: It’s going to be robust night for Democrats, with Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom winning the governor’s race by 11 percent or more. The conventional wisdom from insiders—the lobbyists, campaign managers and other political movers-and-shakers who subscribe to Target Book and participated in this week’s Insider Track survey—hews closely to broader public opinion surveys in picking winners and losers. And the 28 survey respondents also ventured their forecasts about the margins of victory in key California races.

Of course, if the 2016 election taught us anything, it’s that conventional wisdom can be wrong.

Latest in Blogs

Democratic presidential candidates Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris before the start of the Democratic primary debate hosted by NBC News at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts, Thursday, June 27, 2019, in Miami.

Blogs

Frontrunner no more: California poll puts Harris on top and Biden (way) down

Animal rights advocate Deborah Classen holds a poster featuring rabbits to support a bill that would ban fur from wild animals., at a Capitol hearing July 9, 2019.

Blogs

Fur flies as California moves closer to a statewide ban

Blogs

Introducing a new look for CalMatters

Students are joining teachers in the rain today on the picket line at Marshall High School in Los Angeles, as an LAUSD teachers strike began. Photo by David Crane/Los Angeles Daily News

Blogs

If L.A. won’t raise taxes for schools, will Californians vote to overhaul a Proposition 13?

Gov. Gavin Newsom surrounded by legislators at the 2019 State of the State address in the Capitol. Photo by Andrew Nixon, Capital Public Radio

Blogs

Newsom’s biggest budget win? Lawmakers didn’t break his heart

Blogs

A million independent voters risk being irrelevant in California’s presidential primary