How will this year’s election play out? Here’s what insiders say

With Election Day creeping closer, state political insiders have cast their predictions: It’s going to be robust night for Democrats, with Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom winning the governor’s race by 11 percent or more. The conventional wisdom from insiders—the lobbyists, campaign managers and other political movers-and-shakers who subscribe to Target Book and participated in this week’s Insider Track survey—hews closely to broader public opinion surveys in picking winners and losers. And the 28 survey respondents also ventured their forecasts about the margins of victory in key California races.

Of course, if the 2016 election taught us anything, it’s that conventional wisdom can be wrong.

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