Here’s who benefits from Swalwell’s downfall and the shakeup of the California governor race

Sunday afternoon, during the television broadcast of a San Francisco Giants-Baltimore Orioles baseball game, an ad popped up, accusing Rep. Eric Swalwell of ducking tough votes in Congress.

The ad came from Tom Steyer, a billionaire investor who saw Swalwell as his toughest opponent among the candidates for governor this year. The two rivals and former Congressmember Katie Porter have been the only Democrats not mired in low, single-digit support in polls of voters.

A few hours later, after the Giants lost, Swalwell posted a statement on X, saying he is suspending his candidacy in response to allegations he had sexually harassed or assaulted several women. Monday afternoon, Swalwell announced he is resigning from Congress.

Detailed accounts of those transgressions had been published by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN on Friday, confirming rumors that had swirled in political media for several days.

Swalwell had denied any misconduct prior to Friday’s revelations and after they emerged had posted a video continuing that denial, but apologizing to his wife for “mistakes in judgment” and to the public “if in any way you have doubted your support for me.”

“But I think you know who I am,” he continued, an odd statement in light of what had been published.

His denials had absolutely no effect. His major supporters — unions most notably — and Democratic Party leaders called on him to drop his campaign.

“I am suspending my campaign for governor,” Swalwell posted on X Sunday evening. “To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”

Swalwell is obviously political toast. But suspending his campaign for governor may not arrest his downfall.

There is already pressure for him to resign from Congress, or for congressional leaders to banish him. And a prosecutor in New York has opened a criminal investigation for an alleged assault in that city.

Outside of his congressional district in the eastern suburbs of the San Francisco Bay Area Swalwell was known, if at all, as a media-mongering, ambitious politician who made a name for himself as a vocal critic of President Donald Trump.

On that single basis, his campaign exemplified a strategy almost completely devoid of any serious debate about California’s numerous issues, such as homelessness, poverty, water supply, a sluggish economy and a state budget awash in red ink.

That said, where does the campaign go now, with voting in the state’s top-two primary beginning in a few weeks?

Swalwell’s withdrawal — although he will still be one of the 61 candidates listed on the ballot — means that whatever support he had — voters and campaign financiers — will assumedly go elsewhere.

At first glance, Porter would seem to benefit, because the allegations against Swalwell surely enrage women, given the pattern of men in high places being outed as serial abusers. And Porter could use an injection of support since she has not fared well in recent polls.

A Democratic Party poll released last week found that she has slipped by several percentage points to 7%, while Steyer and Swalwell were tied at 10%. The poll also found that Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco still led the pack at 16% and 14% respectively.

Steyer, the only other candidate in the top tier, is spending lavishly from his own fortune, so he doesn’t need money from Swalwell’s former backers.

If anyone from the five-member Democratic lower tier prospers from Swalwell’s departure, it might be San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. His campaign is planning a major media push with support from Silicon Valley.

Here’s hoping that the weirdest election for governor in recent history will finally focus more on substance and less on image and sound bites.