Rick Caruso is considering another political run. His best shot might be California’s highest office

Rick Caruso is apparently not done yet. 

The billionaire businessman spent more than $65 million for the privilege of losing the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race to Karen Bass, but he impressed some voters and observers with his command of the issues, his debate performances and his overall approach to the campaign. 

He lost anyway — and badly. After a close initial count on election night, the late returns broke Bass’ way, and she ended up beating him by nearly 10 percentage points, or almost 90,000 votes.

Afterward, Caruso accepted defeat and wished Bass well. But even then, he said he wouldn’t be far. 

“There will be more to come from the movement we built,” he said in a statement, “but for now, as a city we need to unite around Mayor-elect Bass and give her the support she needs to tackle the many issues we face.”

As that suggested — and as Caruso’s more recent remarks have reminded — his defeat in the mayoral race did not quench the businessman’s desire to influence public policy or secure political office. He has spent the past two years observing and judging the work of elected officials, including the woman who beat him and the emerging field for California governor. 

He gives the impression of someone on the hunt for an opening.

In recent weeks Caruso has been stepping up his critique of Bass’ performance, though not criticizing her directly. Through his newsletter, he’s blamed the city’s “pothole problem” on its budget shortfalls. He’s sounded the alarm about the “crisis” in retail theft and about the use of LAPD officers to respond to graffiti.

Some of his criticisms are more oblique. He’s warned, for instance, that the cost of housing in Los Angeles threatens the city’s “vibrance and economic health” by making it unaffordable for “young adults, teachers, first responders, and many others.” Mind you, that’s coming from a developer whose beachfront Montecito property, the Rosewood Miramar Beach hotel, offers rooms ranging from $1,500 to $6,500 a night.

His compassion for struggling young people has its limits.

The most pointed criticisms focus on the city’s response to chronic homelessness, given Bass’ intense focus on the problem since she took office. He has archly suggested that Bass — again, not by name — is not doing enough to bring people off the streets. 

Read More: LA quality of life is at a record low, survey shows. Why political leaders shouldn’t ignore that

“I find it unconscionable that valuable funds are being wasted and housing units sit empty while tens of thousands of our fellow Angelenos are left out on the streets,” he said in a message last month to supporters.

Is Caruso spoiling for a rematch with Bass? The Los Angeles Times noted that his recent missives have “(stoked) talk about his political ambitions,” but he’s not saying what — he declined an interview with The Times and declined an interview for this column. 

Still, it’s enough to get people wondering. 

The most obvious question is whether he could win a rematch. Bass continues to poll well and is well-liked — even by more conservative voters. That makes ousting her an uphill battle, yet some political experts I spoke with differ on whether Caruso would have a shot, in part because they have different theories about why he lost. Each leads to a different conclusion about his future prospects.

Some say, for instance, that he was doomed by his last-minute decision to register as a Democrat (he was previously registered as “No Party Preference” and a Republican before that). To make the change on the eve of his campaign announcement fostered a sense of cynical opportunism. 

If that’s what sunk him, perhaps he would do better with four years as a member of the party. And he’s been busy bolstering his profile as a Democrat, denouncing Donald Trump and hosting party fundraisers, including a December event for President Joe Biden. 

Others believe that even with his late conversion to the city’s dominant political party, Caruso might have had a chance in the mayor’s race but for the Supreme Court’s ruling in the Dobbs case just as the campaign was heating up. That ruling, which stripped women of a federal right to an abortion, bluntly reminded voters in Los Angeles and elsewhere of the sharp difference between parties on matters of fundamental rights.

It also did not help Caruso that he had contributed to candidates who opposed abortion rights. Again, those feelings might not be as heightened if he decided to seek the mayor’s office in 2026.

“There will be more to come from the movement we built.”

rick caruso, after conceding the 2022 la mayor’s race

But there is a third analysis of Caruso’s loss that is more sobering for his chances: Los Angeles is a very liberal city, and Caruso’s moderate politics — either in his previous life as a Republican or his current iteration as a Democrat — are simply a nonsale in LA. 

Consider the election and reelection of Nithya Raman to the Los Angeles City Council. Raman is an outspoken progressive and was elected in 2020 as a newcomer running in what was a historically moderate section of the city. The district includes the Hollywood Hills, Sherman Oaks and Reseda — enclaves of wealthy homeowners and even vestiges of Republicans — along with more traditionally liberal communities such as Silver Lake and Los Feliz.

Raman unseated an incumbent to win her race in 2020, and this year won reelection outright in March, despite a credible challenge from a moderate opponent, deputy city attorney Ethan Weaver, a candidate whom Caruso supported. 

That’s a reminder that Los Angeles is getting more liberal, not less; today, fewer than 1 in 5 Angelenos is a registered Republican. That’s not great news for a Caruso comeback.

But the mayor’s office is not Caruso’s only potential political entry point. There is a noticeable opening elsewhere in California government: the governor’s office.

Oddly, Caruso may have a clearer path to that office. With Gov. Gavin Newsom termed out, the office is open, and the current field lacks a dominant candidate, and is crowded by liberal contenders.

If Caruso could position himself as a moderate candidate and finish in the top two in the primary, he could appeal to a broad spectrum of voters. California overall has shown little appetite for Republicans — the hapless Steve Garvey is evidence of that — but has far more use for them than Los Angeles does, and still remains open to moderate Democrats, which is how Caruso would run.

Though Caruso himself did not answer the question this week as to whether he might seek the governorship, a person with knowledge of his strategy confirmed that he was thinking about it. 

“It is clear that there’s a strong need for leadership,” the source told me. “He is clearly examining that race.”

There’s something strange about the idea that getting beaten in the race for mayor of Los Angeles is a step toward becoming governor of California, but it’s possible. And Caruso is ready to jump.