Why California’s fire response could make or break the careers of several politicians

“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste,” Stanford economist Paul Romer said at a venture capital seminar 21 years ago, referring to the increasing levels of education in other countries that would make them more competitive with the United States.

Romer’s comment transmogrified into a political slogan when Rahm Emanuel, manager of Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential victory, attributed it to exploiting popular angst over a deep recession.

“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste,” Emanuel told an interviewer.

Notwithstanding the remark’s implied cynicism, crises — either real or merely perceived — can make or break political careers as news media and the voting public judge how those who hold or aspire to office respond.

John F. Kennedy’s cool defusing of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, for instance, was the defining moment of his presidency. Gray Davis became the only California governor to be recalled after clumsily responding to a budget crisis and a financial meltdown of the electrical power system.

At this moment, California faces two crises: horribly destructive and deadly wildfires in Los Angeles County and fears that President Donald Trump will either deny federal relief or use it as leverage to force California to change its policies.

The political figure most obviously affected by the twin crises is Gov. Gavin Newsom, who simultaneously beseeches Trump to send California many billions of dollars, and positions himself as a leader of resistance to Trump’s presidential decrees and a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

How Newsom juggles those two conflicted roles could well determine not only how his governorship is remembered but whether his political career extends beyond his last two years in office.

The wildfire crisis is already threatening the career of another politician, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. She had left her city for a ceremonial visit to Ghana despite warnings that Los Angeles was in critical wildfire danger, and upon returning was widely criticized for her initial absence and the shortcomings of the city’s fire department.

Politico reports that a poll has found that 54% of Los Angeles residents disapprove of Bass’ handling of the fire crisis while 37% approve. The poll was commissioned by Madison McQueen, a local media firm with Republican connections. In a memo, its president, Owen Brennan, said, “Rather than follow predictable partisan patterns, voters in LA are fed up with failure and are demanding more competence from their elected officials.”

Read More: Why is Karen Bass getting so much blame for the LA fires but county supervisors so little?

However, other political figures are not wasting the opportunities that California’s twin crises offer, as Emanuel suggested. Chief among them is Attorney General Rob Bonta. He is widely expected to run for governor next year, and although he has so far refused to say one way or the other, he has tirelessly sought public and media attention.

For months, Bonta’s office had been issuing daily press releases. But last week, as the fires burned and Trump was doing what Trump does, the production of handouts from Bonta’s media staff shifted into a higher degree.

On Friday, it distributed four press releases declaring his opposition to Trump policies on immigration, LGBTQ rights, air pollution and abortion. It matched the four sent out in each of the previous two days, bringing the total for the month to 48 and still counting.

Another politician who may benefit from crisis is Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger, the only Republican on the five-member county board and its current chairperson. That’s meant massive amounts of local and national media attention, particularly when Trump made his visit to the fires last week — so much that there’s some buzz about her as a possible 2026 candidate for governor.