Guest Commentary written by

Stafford Nichols

Stafford Nichols is an economist and research manager at Beacon Economics LLC.

Highway 1 has stood as a global symbol of California’s golden lifestyle for generations. But we can no longer take its survival for granted. 

A series of landslides that began in January 2023 have buried the highway, isolating residents and severing the local economy for three years. Beacon Economics recently conducted an analysis that quantifies the disruption, finding the highway closure cost the region roughly $13.5 million each month it was impassable. 

The highway recently reopened after being closed for about 36 months. The total economic damage due to lost business and tourism is estimated to be close to $500 million. That translates to roughly $30 million in lost tax revenue for local governments.

The California Department of Transportation deserves great credit for their challenging and dangerous work to stabilize these slopes. However, it’s inevitable there will be more landslides. Tectonic uplift constantly fractures the mountains, and increasingly volatile atmospheric rivers saturate unstable rock.

To protect the Central Coast’s economy, state and local policymakers must confront this geological reality and shift from reactive repairs to proactive measures. Strategies that can help ensure the future of this iconic road include engineering to harden the hillside —  and have robots on standby.

Currently, we fix the road after it breaks. The state spent more than $160 million on emergency repairs for just the three recent slides. 

Policymakers should authorize and fund a preventative hardening campaign. We should identify high-risk slopes now and proactively deploy soil nailing, rock sheds, and cable-mesh attenuators, which are flexible, cable-based nets to stop rockslides. 

These projects require significant upfront investment, but prevention is far less expensive than the combined cost of emergency repairs and a multi-year economic shutdown.

Beacon’s analysis illustrates that speed is important for economic recovery, as it offers more certainty, allowing business owners to retain staff and giving tourists confidence to book return trips. 

A group of construction workers in safety gear work on a roadside project near a steep, mountainous landscape. Large sheets of white plastic are being secured to the ground, with some workers bending to adjust the material while others stand nearby. Traffic cones, barriers, and equipment line the road, which is surrounded by lush green hills and rocky cliffs under a clear sky.
Caltrans employees and contractors work to stabilize the southbound portion of California Highway 1 that collapsed into the Pacific Ocean, which occurred in March after days of heavy rainfall, hail and powerful winds, in Big Sur. Photo by Melina Mara, The Washington Post via Getty Images

But repairs were stalled because human crews could not safely work on the active slide, so Caltrans had to deploy remote-controlled bulldozers and excavators, which took time. Now that we know this is a likely scenario in the future, Caltrans’ maintenance contracts could require pre-qualified contractors to retain a fleet of these autonomous and remote-controlled units. 

When the next slide happens — and the geology guarantees it will — these happy-to-help robots could be deployed to begin clearing debris immediately.

Sustainable infrastructure also requires sustainable financing. We must create dedicated funding mechanisms to finance road repairs.

First, local governments should explore Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts. While typically used for urban development, these districts could be a useful tool for the coast. 

The districts would not increase taxes on residents. Instead, they would capture the future growth in property tax revenue generated by high-value real estate turnover and the tourism economy, to back bonds for infrastructure. This ensures that the wealth generated by the Big Sur coast is reinvested directly into the road that makes that wealth possible.

Second, while a traditional toll on an existing highway is legally difficult, due to right-to-travel issues, we may be able to achieve similar results by instituting a virtual parking reservation system at high-traffic vistas like Bixby Bridge.  Similar to the Muir Woods system already in place, travelers would pay for a parking spot ahead of time online, raising funds for road hardening while discouraging the dangerous roadside congestion that currently clogs the highway. 

It would ensure that those who use the coast’s resources would help pay to protect them. 

Work remains to refine these ideas, but it is certain that the geological hazards to Highway 1 will continue. City and county governments lost $10 million in tax revenue per year from the last closure. Spending part of that on preventative solutions to keep the road open would be a net positive. 

If we aren’t proactive about protecting this celebrated route, we’ll find ourselves traveling down a dangerous road.