What to watch in early California election results

It’s Election Day in California!

Today’s the last day to vote in person or return ballots by mail, though Californians have been voting for a month. As of Monday, more than 8 million ballots are already in of the 22.8 million sent out (the percentage returned is down from the same point in 2020).

Here are four things to watch as the early returns come in tonight:

Are there any voting problems? For any potential issues at the polls, know that you have the right to cast a secret ballot without anyone harassing you. If you’re registered to vote but your name isn’t on the polling place’s roster, you can cast a provisional ballot, which will be counted if election officials determine you are eligible to vote. The Secretary of State has a hotline to report any issues at polling sites or drop boxes at (800) 345-VOTE (8683).

You also have the right to watch the election process — something self-appointed election observers in Shasta County have done with so much intensity that it caused some election workers to quit.

Both the state Democratic and Republican parties have election integrity operations on the ground: There’s a hotline for Democratic voters to call in questions or report any problems at the polls, and the California GOP has an online portal to report any election integrity issues.

If you’re voting in person, you can take a selfie, but there are rules to avoid disruptions, including using the images for intimidation or to violate other voters’ privacy.

Attorney General Rob Bonta signed a bipartisan letter with 50 other attorneys general, urging Americans to “vote, participate in civil discourse and, above all, respect the integrity of the democratic process” without resorting to any violence. And the California Highway Patrol says it’s ready for any violent protests at the state Capitol.

How many in-person votes are cast? Both parties have been encouraging early and mail voting, including the state’s Republican party. So the partisan split in the surge at polling places today could decide races.

As of Monday, of all ballots returned, 48% were from Democrats and 30% were from Republicans, according to the Political Data tracker. Of the roughly 10.3 million ballots mailed to registered Democrats, 3.9 million had been returned, or about 38%. And of the about 5.6 million ballots sent to Republicans, 2.4 million had been submitted, or about 43%. 

Which races get called early? Based on public polling, there are two major contests that appear the most likely to be declared soon after the polls close at 8 p.m. by the Associated Press and other media: The U.S. Senate race, for Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, and Proposition 36, a “yes” vote for the statewide ballot measure to increase some criminal penalties. 

The latest survey by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that 55% of likely voters support Schiff, compared to 34% for Republican Steve Garvey. For Prop. 36, 60% of voters were in favor, while 25% opposed.

Which contests are too close to call? It’s not just the presidential race that’s expected to go well past Election Day. By the time California election officials stop their work early Wednesday, it’s likely that the winners will not be known in toss-up congressional and legislative races, plus closely divided ballot propositions.

The nonpartisan California Voter Foundation will be tracking seven congressional races, providing daily updates from today to Dec. 5 on the ballot counts.

If the presidential race didn’t feel monumental enough, you can take additional comfort (or discomfort) knowing that the results will have an outsized impact on California.

As CalMatters Capitol reporter Alexei Koseff explains, during former President Donald Trump’s first term, California sued the administration more than 100 times over his policies. If he returns to the White House, California officials could spend another four years taking Trump’s various actions to court, including those related to abortion, zero-emission vehicles, immigration and gun control.

Some officials are already making contingency plans: Gov. Gavin Newsom said in October he is developing a plan for a disaster relief fund after Trump threatened to withhold wildfire aid. And Bonta told Alexei he’s been working “for months” preparing for potential legal skirmishes with the Trump administration.

• Bonta, to CalMatters: “The best way to protect California, its values, the rights of our people, is to be prepared, so we won’t be flat-footed.”

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, many California politicians who developed close ties with Harris during her California career — including outgoing U.S. Sen. Laphonza Butler and Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland — could join her administration, amplifying more California perspectives on the national stage (or even international, depending on the post). 

And some special interest groups, including tech and labor, could find themselves working closely with the Harris’ administration. The head of the Chamber of Progress, a trade group for tech companies, said Harris “had an open door for the industry” during her time in California — a contrast to the Biden administration, which is seen as more hostile toward Big Tech.

Read more about what a Trump or Harris presidency would mean for California in Alexei’s story.

We’ll be covering all the key contests tonight and the rest of the week, with previews of what’s at stake and live results that will be updated when they’re available. Here’s a rundown of the stories, with links you can bookmark:

• Save this page if you want an overall snapshot of results that we will continually update.
• U.S. Senate: Find out if it’s Schiff or Garvey.
• U.S. House: Key swing districts in the state could help decide what party controls Congress.
• California Legislature: Learn if Democrats kept their supermajority, if any incumbents were booted or if the state government became more or less diverse.
• Save this page if you want to see how all 10 statewide propositions are faring.
• Prop. 2: $10 billion bond issue to repair K-12 and community college facilities.
• Prop. 3: Amend the state constitution to enshrine same-sex marriage.
• Prop. 4: $10 billion bond issue for environmental and climate projects.
• Prop. 6: Limit forced labor as a form of punishment in state prisons.
• Prop. 32: Raise the hourly minimum wage from $16 to $18.
• Prop. 33: Give local governments more leeway to cap rent prices.
• Prop. 34: Limit AIDS Healthcare Foundation from spending on ballot measures.
• Prop. 35: Ensure that a tax on health care plans is spent on low-income patients.
• Prop. 36: Increase penalties for certain drug and theft crimes.