Winners and losers from California’s primary

The votes from California’s primary are still being counted. Remember: Ballots postmarked by Tuesday will still be tallied as long as they arrive by March 12, contributing to the state’s notoriously long waits for final results.

But there are already some clear winners — and losers:

Progressives: With Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee out of the U.S. Senate race, progressives are dismayed by their losses, and upset that Rep. Adam Schiff elevated Republican Steve Garvey during the campaign to consolidate the Democratic vote in November, writes CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu. Some progressive groups told Stella that having a Schiff-Garvey matchup could backfire — boosting GOP turnout and dissuading young voters of color to vote. But despite Schiff’s tenuous popularity among progressives, it’s unlikely that he’ll lose to a Republican, said one Democratic strategist.

Huntington Beach: The losses continued for progressives and Democrats alike in Huntington Beach, where residents are voting to ban flying the LGBTQ+ Pride Flag on city property and to require voter identification in municipal elections, explains CalMatters Capitol reporter Alexei Koseff. Though the city’s Republican mayor said that “this is the direction that the community has been wanting to go,” the state’s Attorney General and Secretary of State warned city officials that the voter ID proposal ran afoul with state law.

Legislative races: Rusty Hicks, who upset some by not giving up his post as state Democratic Party Chairperson while campaigning, has some catching up to do to finish in the top two in Assembly District 2. And the Villapuduas’ grand plan to both win seats isn’t panning out so well. Assemblymember Carlos Villapudua, a Stockton Democrat, is a distant third in state Senate District 5. Edith Villapudua, who switched from that race to seek her husband’s seat, is also lagging in third in Assembly District 13.

Congress: Assemblymember Vince Fong — a Bakersfield Republican who had to go to court just to run for the U.S. House seat formerly held by past Speaker Kevin McCarthy — has a healthy lead for one of two spots in District 20. Another Republican, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, and Democrat Marisa Wood are locked in a tight battle for second place.

Trump sweeps delegates: As of Wednesday, former President Donald Trump had 79% in the Republican presidential primary, compared to 18% for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who suspended her campaign after Super Tuesday. That’s far higher than the 50% plus one he needed to win all 169 delegates, after the state GOP changed its rules to support Trump.

S.F. goes tough on crime: Despite the city’s reputation of being a progressive stronghold, San Francisco residents passed two tough-on-crime ballot measures: Proposition E to expand the police department’s use of surveillance and facial recognition technology, as well as loosen reporting requirements; and Prop. F to require those receiving city welfare to be screened for drugs.

Prop. 1: It’s still too close to call whether Californians approve of overhauling mental health policy. Even with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s backing, a nearly $21 million war chest, and an early lead in the polls, voters remain split on rerouting funding to house people with behavioral needs and borrowing billions to pay for treatment bends.

Campaign consultants: They won even if their candidates didn’t. In 60 Assembly races, 20 state Senate races and Prop. 1, consultants have made more than $10.7 million so far this election cycle, Capitol Weekly reports. The next two biggest spending categories: TV or cable airtime and production costs ($10.3 million) and campaign literature and mailings ($7.6 million).

As more Californians are squeezed out of the housing market, some lawmakers are proposing new measures to rein in corporate landlords whom they partly blame for the state’s lack of affordable housing. But are these landlords really the cause of Californian’s housing woes, or are they — as one economist put it — a kind of “boogeyman” for the housing market?

CalMatters housing reporter Ben Christopher sought to answer that question, but as it turns out, assessing how corporate landlords affect California housing isn’t so straightforward.

Nationwide, businesses that own at least 1,000 single family homes control less than 0.5% of the housing stock. In California, less than 2% of single-family homes are owned by investors with 10 properties or more.

Research is also mixed if corporate landlords drive up rent costs. While one overview suggested that investors chase after rising rents, but don’t cause them, another found that neighborhoods with more corporate landlords had slightly higher rents than comparable neighborhoods. 

But the industry is growing and critics of corporate landlords argue that if they’re not a problem now, without regulation, they soon will be. Real estate listing website RedFin estimated in February that about 13% of all the homes sold in the U.S. in the final quarter of 2023 were single-family homes bought by investors. And the largest single corporate owner in the state, Invitation Homes, is also the country’s biggest. The publicly traded company owns 84,567 homes — of which 11,862 are in California.

To learn more about corporate landlords, including whether they’re shutting out housing opportunities from first-time buyers, read Ben’s story. 

Ben also reports on a key decision on affordable housing: 

A court ruling targeting an exclusive Los Angeles County suburb has put the so-called Builder’s Remedy — a radical, but untested, California housing law — on solid legal ground. 

That’s bad news for development-averse cities hoping to block similar projects across California and a promising legal win for pro-housing advocates.

Cities are required to plan for new housing to accommodate projected population growth every decade. Those that fail to are subject to the builder’s remedy, which lets developers ignore local zoning restrictions so long as 20% of the units are reserved for people making lower incomes. 

Last winter, La Cañada Flintridge rejected an 80-unit builder’s remedy apartment project, even though the state still hadn’t signed off its housing plan. The city argued state approval wasn’t required.

On Monday, Superior Court judge Mitchell Beckloff ordered the city to process the application.

• Newsom, in a statement: “Today’s favorable ruling should serve as a warning to other NIMBY jurisdictions that the state will hold every community accountable in planning for their fair share of housing.”

A common refrain from state officials and lawmakers about the cost of homelessness is that it’s much more expensive for the public to move someone off the streets into long-term housing than it is to prevent them from becoming homeless in the first place.

As CalMatters homelessness reporter Marisa Kendall explains, while social workers are often on the frontlines helping residents avoid homelessness, Los Angeles County is experimenting with a tool that is reportedly three-and-a-half times better at predicting who will lose their housing: artificial intelligence. Since 2021, the AI program has served more than 700 people and 86% have remained housed. 

Born out of UCLA’s California Policy Lab in 2019, the technology analyzes data using 580 factors, including people’s emergency room visits, jail stays and usage of services such as CalFresh food benefits. It then ranks people from 1 to 90,000 on their risk of becoming homeless, with “1” having the highest likelihood.

Policy Lab researchers then send a list containing those high-risk residents to L.A. County officials, and social workers reach out to ask residents to participate in an assistance program.

One participant was Sandricka Henderson, who after being diagnosed with lupus at the start of the pandemic went on disability benefits and fell behind on rent and bills. In the winter of 2023, a social worker contacted her, out of the blue, offering her money and help with rent, groceries and car payments. Now Henderson says she no longer feels on the edge of being homeless. 

• Henderson: “It really did change my whole circumstances. My son had a Christmas that I didn’t think I was going to be able to give him.”

Funds for the program are expected to end in 2026, and other counties, such as Santa Clara and San Diego, have expressed interest in using similar AI models to prevent homelessness.

For more on this AI technology, read Marisa’s story.

California and neighboring states have been arguing over the drought-plagued Colorado River. On Wednesday, California, Nevada and Arizona submitted their latest plan to the federal government. To find out how much California’s allocation would be cut, read the story from CalMatters’ Rachel Becker.