Why the California Legislature will look different in 2025

No matter how many California lawmakers win reelection next week, there will still be plenty of turnover at the state Capitol.

A dozen state senators and two dozen Assemblymembers are exiting — due to term limits; because they’re seeking another office; or for other (and sometimes multiple) reasons. That churn — which could grow if incumbents lose — already rivals the “Great Resignation” of 2022 that helped produce the most diverse Legislature ever. 

The list of those leaving, compiled by lobbyist and legislative watcher Chris Micheli, includes some big names:

• Sen. Toni Atkins, a San Diego Democrat, the first openly gay leader of that chamber, the first woman to lead both chambers and now a candidate for governor in 2026.

• Sen. Brian Dahle, a Redding Republican who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022.

• Sen. Steve Glazer, an Orinda Democrat who ran for state controller in 2022.

• Sen. Nancy Skinner, an Oakland Democrat who has been influential on housing and other issues.

• Assemblymember Anthony Rendon, a Lakewood Democrat who was speaker for seven years until he was forced to give up the post to Robert Rivas in 2023.

• Assemblymember Reggie Jones-Sawyer, a Los Angeles Democrat whose leadership of the public safety committee was contentious.

How much impact the turnover has on state policy depends largely on whether Democrats keep their two-thirds supermajorities in both the Senate and Assembly. This has allowed them to pass budgets without a single Republican vote and generally ignore GOP legislators. 

Democrats now hold 62 of 80 seats in the Assembly and 31 of 40 in the Senate. Even if Democrats keep their seats, policy changes also hinge on whether more business-friendly Democrats or more progressive candidates win.

Early voting: With eight more days of voting, nearly 4.5 million Californians had returned their ballots as of Monday. Those numbers will likely accelerate with the opening of vote centers in 29 counties over the weekend. Still, so far the return rate is well below the last presidential election, in 2020, when the final turnout of 81% among registered voters was the highest since 1976.

Election security: Attorney General Rob Bonta sent out a bulletin Monday about the rules for third parties returning ballots and about unofficial ballot boxes, including when it’s a crime. Tensions are running high, highlighted by a ballot box set on fire early Monday in a closely watched congressional district in Washington state, plus another in Oregon. 

For the record: Friday’s WhatMatters item on the state Republican Party and mail voting was updated to clarify the outcome of the 2020 drop box case and the party’s stance.

We’re in the final stretch on the 10 statewide ballot propositions, so the campaigns are making their final arguments and raising millions to get their message out.

Here’s a quick rundown:

• Prop. 33: The proposal to give local governments more authority to limit rent increases is trailing by a slim margin in the latest polls. But in cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and Berkeley, local laws have already put stricter limits on rents than state law. It’s in these cities, CalMatters’ Felicia Mello explains, that renters and landlords could experience the most immediate effects of Prop. 33 — both its benefits and drawbacks. San Francisco supervisors, for instance, passed legislation that would automatically bring rent control to about 16,000 more units if voters approve Prop. 33. Opponents say Prop. 33 could make building housing so unprofitable, it will stifle new construction. Read more in Felicia’s story.

• Proposition money: Prop. 33 is also drawing the most campaign money, along with the related measure Prop. 34, according to an analysis by CalMatters data reporter Jeremia Kimelman. More than half of the $350 million raised by pro and con campaigns for all 10 ballot measures is going toward those two measures. While that’s certainly a lot of cash, keep in mind that in 2022, two (ultimately unsuccessful) competing sports gambling measures cost proponents and critics $571 million total. Learn more in Jeremia’s story.

• Prop. 5: If passed, the ballot measure to lower the voting threshold for local governments to borrow money for affordable housing and other projects could immediately boost the chances of local bond measures this November, reports CalMatters local news fellow Cayla Mihalovich. Sacramento County, for example, wants to borrow $415 million for fire stations; and San Francisco has a $390 million bond issue to fund pedestrian safety projects. Prop. 5 proponents say the measure enables communities to fund projects that the majority of voters approve, but opponents argue it is “an engine for tax increases forever.” Find out more in Cayla’s story.

From CalMatters’ Cayla Mihalovich:

More cops. More arrests. More stolen goods going back to their owners.

Gov. Gavin Newsom bragged about those accomplishments at a Monday press conference where he touted the state’s retail theft task force and his deployments of California Highway Patrol officers to Bakersfield and Oakland.

• Newsom: “I just want to thank the men and women in uniform and all the partnerships that have been formed over the course of the last number of years. … It’s a compliment to that spirit of partnership and collaboration across the board.”

He said the ramped-up enforcement against retail theft led to 10,138 arrests since the state last year gave $267 million in grants to police departments. 

He delivered the message as voters continue to cast ballots on Prop. 36, the tough-on-crime measure that would lengthen sentences for certain drug and theft crimes while directing more convicted people to treatment. Polls show voters widely support the measure and are likely to pass it. 

Newsom opposes that measure, which he called “a fast-track to state prison.”

“It’s the prevailing wind, and I understand it. I just hope people take the time to understand what they’re supporting,” he said. “It’s just drug policy reform. It’s unfunded and unfortunately, it may impact some existing drug treatment and mental health services.”

Tijuana sewage: Newsom also took a quick trip across the border Monday to visit a wastewater treatment plant near the Tijuana River. A decades-long raw sewage crisis stemming from the region flows toward Southern California, polluting the environment, jeopardizing the health of residents and stinking up Imperial Beach.

Though state lawmakers disagree on how to regulate the artificial intelligence industry, the technology itself is here to stay. And for students, California public colleges and universities are prioritizing AI courses that prepare them for the modern workforce.

As Delilah Brumer and Jeremy Garza of CalMatters’ College Journalism Network explain, computer and math jobs are expected to be the second-fastest growing occupations over the next decade. And while past dealings between AI companies and California schools have been bumpy, the state partnered with chipmaker Nvidia in August to expand AI education in community colleges. Eight of the state’s 116 now have AI degrees or certificates, with more expected.

In September, California State University announced it requested $7 million for its 2025-26 budget to build out its AI efforts, including developing a student hub to “provide hands-on learning,” training faculty and purchasing technology. Currently, four of 23 Cal State universities have AI programs.

And leaders at the University of California are working to incorporate AI across various disciplines. Last month UCLA became the first California college to offer dedicated ChatGPT accounts for student groups and faculty.

Read more about colleges preparing for AI careers in Delilah and Jeremy’s story.