What to watch for in U.S. Senate debate

From CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu:

Three Democrats and one Republican walk on to a stage. How well will they get along?

It is one of many key things to watch at tonight’s U.S. Senate debate in Los Angeles — the first time top contenders Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff and former baseball star Steve Garvey face off in a televised debate. 

Garvey, a first-time candidate, has run a low-key campaign since announcing his bid in October but ranks near the top of several recent polls. The event will be his first political debate — a chance to elevate his campaign message as a moderate Republican to a statewide audience.

But the debate could also be a risk for Garvey, who has little political experience and may not be able to handle other candidates’ pressure on his policy stances, said Christian Grose, professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California. It is difficult, however, to predict how Garvey will do, he said.

• Grose: “He’s a little bit of a black box.”

The three Democratic members of Congress — holding similar positions on many issues despite having nuanced track records — will continue to try distinguishing themselves from each other to appeal to undecided voters. The Democratic hopefuls have largely refrained from attacking each other at joint appearances so far. But with ballots going out on Feb. 5 for the March 5 primary and Garvey rising in the polls, that could change.

Porter and Lee, who are behind Garvey in recent polls, could promote themselves as true progressives and attack Schiff on his ties to the Democratic establishment and his relatively moderate voting record, Grose said.

But the three representatives may still be reluctant to target each other, said Democratic political consultant Andrew Acosta.

• Acosta: “If Schiff hits Porter, is he going to guarantee that those votes go to him? Or do they go to Barbara Lee?” 

Schiff could also target Garvey’s inexperience and past votes for former President Donald Trump as a way to promote Garvey to Republican voters as the opponent, so Schiff can have an easy win in November without having to face another Democrat, some strategists and experts told CalMatters. 

Or Schiff could also leave Garvey alone in hopes he does well in the debate and gains traction. No Republican has won statewide in California since 2006.

The debate is an opportunity for all four candidates to gain free media exposure. And if Garvey does well, he could consolidate the Republican vote, experts say. In the primary, the two leading vote-getters, no matter their party, advance to the Nov. 5 general election.   

Jessica Millan Patterson, chairperson of the California Republican Party, said Garvey’s lack of experience may be his strong suit. 

• Patterson: “I think that a lot of people are looking for someone who is fresh, someone who can be a consensus builder, someone who’s going to go to Washington, D.C., and fight for them.”

To watch the debate: It’s from 6 to 7:30 p.m. and will air live on FOX 11 in Los Angeles and KTVU in the San Francisco Bay Area. Politico will livestream it.

And to learn more about where the candidates stand, read this detailed story.

It’s still more than two years until the first votes are cast for California’s next governor. But a fourth big-name Democrat is already in the race.

As CalMatters Capitol reporter Alexei Koseff writes, Senate leader Toni Atkins made it official Friday in her home of San Diego, declaring that she’s joining Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (who announced last April), former state Controller Betty Yee (also in April) and state schools Supt. Tony Thurmond (who announced last September) in the 2026 campaign. Attorney General Rob Bonta is also seriously considering a run.

Atkins is trying to break out of the pack by emphasizing her record blazing a trail for women in the Legislature and her hardscrabble roots in rural Virginia.

• Atkins, at her announcement: “You shouldn’t have to be a millionaire to make it in California. You should only have to have a dream and people who care enough to help you reach it.”

If she succeeds, Atkins would break several barriers. Along with Kounalakis and Yee, she would be the first female governor in the 174-year history of California (which has had a string of female U.S. senators and now has a record number of women in the Legislature). Atkins would also be the first openly gay chief executive.

Atkins has been the top Democrat in the Senate since 2018, but is handing over that post to Sen. Mike McGuire of Santa Rosa on Feb. 5, then terms out of the Legislature after this year.  

The way-early start of the campaign shows how many Democrats have been waiting for the chance to run for governor — and how costly the race will likely become. Jerry Brown served eight years (for a second time), and Gavin Newsom is in his second, four-year term.

For more on Atkins and how the 2026 race is shaping up, read Alexei’s story.

After months of negotiations and one-day strikes at four campuses in December, the union representing California State University professors, lecturers and other faculty staff is expected today to walk out once more — this time for five days until Jan. 26 and across all the university system’s 23 campuses.

Earlier this month, Cal State unilaterally committed to wage hikes of 5%, well short of what the California Faculty Association seeks: 12% raises this year and other benefits, including extended parental leave for its 29,000 members, and more mental health counselors for students. 

Cal State, meanwhile, has reached agreements with other university workers for 5% raises in 2023-24. And among other public employee contracts, SEIU Local 1000, the umbrella union for nine out of the state’s 21 bargaining units, agreed in September to a 10% wage bump through 2025. The union representing high patrol officers and state prison doctors also agreed to 7% and 5.5% general salary increases, respectively, through 2025. 

Some high-profile officials publicly showed support on Friday for the planned faculty strike. U.S. Senate hopeful Rep. Lee on X (formerly Twitter) credited faculty members as the reason for why California has the “best public university system in the nation.” And Lt. Gov. Kounalakis said Cal State “is the path to the California dream for millions of students” because of faculty and staff. Both said they “stand” with the faculty union.

Cal State narrowly avoided another strike, of skilled trades workers, the same week by reaching a tentative agreement with Teamsters Local 2010 on Friday, reports CBS News. The union, which represents 1,100 plumbers, electricians, elevator mechanics and others, agreed to a 5% retroactive wage increase. The Teamsters said Saturday in a statement that it “wholeheartedly supports CSU Faculty in their fight for a fair contract.”

Speaking of labor: Employees at the Los Angeles Times held a one-day strike Friday to protest plans from management to lay off journalists, reports Politico. Workers rallied in Los Angeles, while staff in cities including Sacramento and Washington also participated in the walkout. According to a union statement, Friday’s actions signified the first “newsroom union work stoppage” in L.A. Times’ 142-year history. The planned staff cuts are reported to be in response to the financial hit that the owner, billionaire Patrick Soon-Shiong, took since acquiring the Times in 2018.

Both U.S. President Joe Biden and Gov. Gavin Newsom Sunday honored the one-year anniversary of the Monterey Park mass shooting with social media posts highlighting the need for gun control. On X (formerly Twitter), the president said the shooting was “a heinous act of gun violence,” while the governor described it as “horrific.” 

• Newsom, on X: “As we honor and grieve for the victims and survivors, we remain committed to the fight against senseless gun violence. Together, we’ll work towards a safer future for Monterey Park, and every community.”

The governor has proposed a U.S. constitutional amendment to limit access to assault weapons and raise the age for gun buyers to 21 nationwide, among other things.

Vice President Kamala Harris also called on Congress to “pass commonsense gun safety laws” and U.S. Rep. Judy Chu, a Democrat from Los Angeles and chairperson of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus, mentioned a measure to expand language translations of gun violence prevention strategies in her post marking the anniversary. 

On Jan. 21, 2023, a 72-year-old gunman opened fire at the Star Ballroom Dance Studio near Los Angeles, killing 11 people and injuring several others. After moving to Lai Lai Ballroom nearby, the gunman was disarmed by Brandon Tsay, a computer hobbyist whose family owned the dance space. The gunman died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound during a standoff with police.

And Tuesday marks the one-year anniversary of another California mass shooting, where seven Asian and Latino agricultural workers were killed in Half Moon Bay near San Francisco. The 66-year-old gunman had worked at both farms where the shootings took place and was later apprehended by police.