A slow start for voter turnout in California primary

Is the lack of competitive presidential primaries persuading California voters to ignore their mail ballots? 

While there’s still time for a surge of ballots before March 5, it looks that way so far, political analyst Paul Mitchell writes for Capitol Weekly. As of Saturday, 7% of 22 million ballots had been returned. Compared to the same point in 2022, voters have returned 250,000 fewer ballots. The turnout in that year’s June primary was 33%.

• Mitchell: “We are staring at a potential for a sub-30% turnout election. Lowest share of registered voters ever in a presidential primary?”

The previous low in a presidential primary is 31% in 2012, when President Barack Obama was breezing to renomination. But even a 30% turnout this year would still mean many more actual voters, since there are 5 million more registered voters in 2024 than in 2012.

This year, President Joe Biden is basically unopposed on the Democratic side, and former President Donald Trump is way ahead in the polls among Republicans. In the far more dramatic presidential primary they both contested in March 2020, 47% of registered voters cast ballots. 

One candidate hoping for a bigger turnout is Rep. Barbara Lee, who is stuck in fourth place in the polls for the U.S. Senate and is counting on a late surge of young and progressive voters (with five rallies this week) to have a shot at the top two. But so far, only 2% of 18-to-34-year-old voters have turned in ballots, compared to 15% for voters 65 and older, according to Mitchell.

CalMatters reporters sat down with Lee for an hour last week. While she acknowledged that her campaign has not raised as much cash as her two Democratic opponents, Lee said that she is “not of the establishment, per se” and that her voting record speaks to “the majority of Californians who are struggling.” She also pointed to her history of pushing the envelope “early on” — such as casting the lone vote against the Afghanistan War in 2001, and being one of the first members of Congress to co-sponsor a 2017 resolution to impeach then-President Trump. Said Lee: “I step out there, and sooner or later, folks fall in line.”

Read more of the interview highlights from CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu.

Also, the Secretary of State’s office has released the list of 22 write-in candidates whose votes will count, including five for U.S. Senate. 

In other election news:

Voters have questions: How can you get your vote counted faster? How are the presidential primary rules different? At CalMatters, we try to answer your election questions — many about local judicial races. But as Calmatters’ Capitol reporter Sameea Kamal explains, it’s difficult to find information about those candidates. A few resources Sameea found:

• County bar associations: Some local bar associations publish evaluations and ratings based on candidates’ past cases, disciplinary issues and professional references. The State Bar Association’s website may also have some of this information.
• Local news sources: In Southern California, for example, LAist has voter guides for judges running in Los Angeles and Orange counties. In the Bay Area, the San Francisco Chronicle includes superior court judges in its voter guide and list of endorsements.
• County elections office websites: Because candidates are required to file disclosure forms, check out your local elections office website to see how much money these candidates raised and from whom.

S.F. ballot measure: And a proposal to expand drone use by S.F. police officers has digital and civil rights advocates concerned, writes CalMatters tech reporter Khari Johnson. In March, the city’s residents will decide on Proposition E, which would loosen restrictions on police over their use of surveillance technology, and allow them to use drones in high-speed vehicle chases. Prop. E supporters say drones may reduce injuries by decreasing the number of police vehicles involved. But opponents argue that the measure rolls back valuable police reforms and could encourage lawmakers to consider policies that grant police more authority about tech adoption.

Gov. Gavin Newsom traveled to Washington, D.C. late last week to confab with fellow governors and to make some appeals to the White House.

High on the list: Calling for the Federal Emergency Management Agency to “honor its commitment to fully reimburse California’s local governments for expenses to protect and shelter homeless people” during the COVID-19 pandemic. There’s a dispute over those reimbursements that could put cities and counties on the hook for $300 million, as CalMatters homelessness reporter Marisa Kendall recently explained.

On Friday, he joined governors to meet President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, then he and top California officials huddled with White House officials to discuss homelessness, immigration and the Tijuana River sewage crisis, including $310 million that Biden is seeking from Congress to address the contamination. 

And the governor made more national TV appearances, including on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” where he warned that women’s reproductive rights are “under threat” from Republicans (his super PAC has a new ad on Tennessee’s abortion restrictions, with ads in other states to come); expressed confidence in Biden’s reelection prospects and performance in a second term; and again dismissed speculation that he would run for president this year as “idle chatter” and a “sideshow.”

But back home, Newsom is facing some political headwinds. For the first time since November 2019, during his first year as governor, his approval rating dipped below 50% (to 47% among all adults surveyed) in polling by the Public Policy Institute of California. Some of the larger decreases in support were among Democrats, independents, Latinos and men. And 57% of adults say California is headed in the wrong direction.

Republicans couldn’t wait to pounce. 

• Assembly GOP leader James Gallagher, in a statement: “Californians are waking up to Gavin Newsom’s complete failure as a leader. Under Newsom, gas and utility prices skyrocketed, people can no longer afford their groceries, homelessness and crime soared, our budget plunged into a deficit and we have the second-highest unemployment rate in the nation.” 

The poll did include some good news for Newsom. His signature mental health measure, Prop. 1, appears headed to passage on March 5, with 59% of likely voters saying they plan to vote “yes.”

After months of organizing throughout 2023, California State University student assistants announced Friday that they “overwhelmingly vote yes” to form a union and gain representation by joining the California State University Employees Union. About 7,200 students cast ballots and 97% of them voted to unionize. The group represents 20,000 Cal State student assistants and will form one of the largest undergraduate student worker unions in the country.

• Catherine Hutchinson, California State University Employees Union president, in a statement: “Student work is real work…. University management will no longer be able to divide students and staff or exploit student labor to degrade staff jobs. Joining together is a win for students, for staff, and for all Californians who have a stake in the CSU’s mission.” 

Student assistants hold a variety of jobs, including library assistants, clerical workers and food service workers. These workers argue that they often carry out the same tasks as full-time employees, but make minimum wage. 

Seeking to unionize to negotiate for better pay, paid sick time and health insurance benefits, student assistants petitioned the California Public Employment Relations Board in April for a union election, which the board approved in October.

Friday’s announcement follows the vote by members of the California Faculty Association to approve a deal with the university system last week. Representing 29,000 professors, lecturers and others, the union agreed to a 5% raise for 2023-24 and 10 weeks of parental leave, plus other raises and benefits. Cal State’s board of trustees are expected next month to meet and vote on the contract.

In addition to labor disputes and a $1.5 billion shortfall in its education spending last year, Cal State faces enrollment woes. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, a new report by The Campaign for College Opportunity shows that three Bay Area campuses had the steepest drops (San Francisco State, Cal State East Bay and Sonoma State). Sonoma State saw the biggest change, losing a third of its student body since 2019.