New housing construction in a neighborhood on the outskirts of west Fresno on June 15, 2023. Photo by Larry Valenzuela, CalMatters/CatchLight Local

Good morning, Inequality Insights readers. I’m Wendy Fry. 

Local elected officials in San Francisco and Los Angeles have already shown interest in expanding rent control if Prop 33 passes, opening the door to such moves. CalMatters housing reporter Felicia Mello took a look this week at where the state ballot measure might have the most impact if California voters approve the ballot measure next week. 

Prop 33 would repeal a state housing law limiting how cities can regulate rents. Most California cities wouldn’t see an immediate change. But a few cities like Berkeley already have laws on the books allowing more stringent regulation than current state law, Mello reported, and it’s in those places that renters would see the soonest benefits—and landlords the first headaches.

In San Francisco, city supervisors have already unanimously passed legislation that would kick in if Prop. 33 passes, bringing rent control to an estimated 16,000 additional units. 

California caps rent increases for apartments and corporate-owned houses more than 15 years old at 10% per year but limits how much local governments can impose their own caps. Prop 33 supporters say that even increases allowed under current state law can place a significant burden on tenants. Opponents of Prop 33 argue that cities will enact rent control so strict it will stifle new housing construction at a time when the state desperately needs it. Democrat Toni Atkins, a leading candidate to be the next governor of California, is opposed to the measure because she says cities will enact rent control ordinances to avoid complying with state housing production laws.

Manuel Pastor, director of the University of Southern California’s Equity Research Institute, said more progressive coastal cities are likely to enact stricter rent increase caps while inland cities try to lure new development. 

“If the proponents of Prop. 33 think this will solve our housing crisis, they’re mistaken,” he said. “If the opponents of Prop. 33 think that this will result in housing armageddon, they’re mistaken as well.”

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The California Divide Team

Wendy Fry is an Emmy-winning multimedia investigative journalist who reports on border and immigration issues. Previously she reported on inequality for the CalMatters California Divide team. Based in...