Why would a group trying to elect Democrats buy ads promoting their Republican opponents to conservative watchers of Fox News? Because California’s election rules have turned normal campaign tactics on their head.
In his year-and-a-half as California’s attorney general, Democrat Xavier Becerra has made a full-time job of fighting the Trump Administration—filing more than 30 lawsuits to defend the environment, immigrants, birth control access and more.
Which makes it odd that when Becerra’s supporters bought TV time to air a campaign commercial for him, they chose the most Trump-boosting network around: Fox News.
The ad spends 15 seconds describing Becerra in ways that likely repel the typical Fox viewer, saying he is “leading the resistance, defending Dreamers, stopping the wall, taking on the NRA.” But the other 15 seconds hails one of Becerra’s Republican opponents, Steven Bailey, as the “pro-gun, pro-life” candidate who “stands with President Trump (and) opposes sanctuary cities.”
It’s the latest in a series of twisted tactics now emblematic of Campaign 2018.
Why would a group trying to elect a Democrat promote his Republican opponent to a conservative audience? Because California’s election rules have turned normal campaign tactics on their head.
Under the state’s nonpartisan primary system, candidates from all parties appear on the same ballot and voters can choose any of them. The two with the most votes on June 5—regardless of their party—advance to the November general election.
This “top two” system has scrambled traditional campaigning. Instead of candidates simply promoting themselves and attacking their opponents, campaigns are going to bizarre extremes to give certain opponents a boost, whether on old media (mailers and TV ads) or new (social platforms and texts). In some cases, they’re raising the profile of candidates they believe would be easier to beat in the general. In other cases, they’re propping up obscure opponents to shave votes from a more formidable foe.
Think of these machiavellian maneuvers as the political equivalent of a triple bank pool shot.
They’ve already spurred ethics complaints from two candidates for governor, alleging that campaign groups aren’t properly identifying whom their messages support.
“The ‘top two’ primary has really changed the decision-making calculations for campaigns,” said political consultant Garry South, a veteran of Democratic campaigns who is not working on any statewide races this election. “Things are happening that might look a little strange, but are probably pretty rational calculations.”
Some messages aim for niche audiences. Others, blasting more broadly, do double duty, simultaneously promoting two opposing candidates in an attempt to pick a favored candidate’s opponent.
The ad showing the leading Democratic and Republican candidates for attorney general is not paid for by either one. An independent committee largely funded by Realtors and labor unions paid for it, and disclosed in campaign finance reports that it supports Becerra and opposes Bailey. The race includes two other candidates: Democratic Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones and Republican attorney Eric Early. The ad appears to try to consolidate GOP support for Bailey, making it harder for Jones to get in the top two and easier for Becerra to win in November.
“I can’t speak to the motivations of an outside group, but they do see Judge Bailey as the strongest alternative,” said Bailey spokesman Corey Uhden.
In deep-blue California, where just one quarter of voters are registered Republican and the GOP hasn’t won a statewide office since 2006, many Democrats would rather face a Republican in November because it virtually assures their victory. Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the front-runner in the race for governor, almost said as much at a recent debate when he said a Republican would be an “ideal” opponent in the fall.
Polls show the a tight race for second place between Republican John Cox and Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa, with many voters undecided and 24 other candidates on the ballot.
So Newsom is running ads that could help Cox consolidate the Republican vote. One does double duty by contrasting Newsom’s work to pass stricter gun controls (an appeal to Democrats) with Cox’s support for the NRA (an appeal to Republicans). Newsom deployed a similar tactic after President Trump endorsed Cox, flooding cell phones with a text message announcing the news.
The response from Republicans? Some indicated on social media they thought the Newsom campaign had contact them by mistake. Others identified it as a Democrat’s move to influence the GOP vote.
“Be careful what you wish for sneaky Gavin,” tweeted Tony Krvaric, chairman of the San Diego Republican Party.
Just got this text from a @GavinNewsom “volunteer”. His campaign prefers @TheRealJohnHCox. Guess what? I do too, and be careful what you wish for sneaky Gavin. #cagov #cagop pic.twitter.com/MfyLKrghrM
— Tony Krvaric (@TonyKrvaric) May 22, 2018
Newsom spokesman Nathan Click said the campaign sent the text to Californians across the political spectrum: “That’s a good message for Republicans and Democrats.”
Villaraigosa’s campaign filed a complaint with the state’s political ethics watchdog about similar ads by a Newsom-backing group. The complaint says “the clear and cynical short-term goal” for Newsom and his supporters “is to manipulate the primary election and to make sure a Republican advances to the general election.”
The indignation is rich, since an independent group backing Villaraigosa is also trying to pull the puppet strings on the California electorate.
Hoping to dilute Cox’s support among Republicans in order to launch Villaraigosa into the top two, the group is running ads that deride Cox and others that promote his GOP opponents. It sent GOP voters a mailer promoting Republicans Robert Newman, an almost unknown candidate, and Assemblyman Travis Allen, Cox’s main competitor.
Another mailer it sent Republicans features a striking photo of the attractive Allen family in front of a military plane. Ben Avey, a member of the Sacramento Republican Central Committee, assumed it was from Allen when he first pulled it from his mailbox. Then he flipped it over and read the fineprint: the ad was actually from the pro-Villaraigosa group.
“Even as a kind of sophisticated voter I was kind of shocked it came from an independent expenditure supporting Antonio Villaraigosa, just because it was so bold in what it was doing,” Avey said. “There was some double jujitsu there.”
Cox filed an ethics complaint against the pro-Villaraigosa committee, alleging it broke the law by not reporting its support for the other Republican candidates on campaign finance disclosures.
“It is a blatant attempt to split the Republican vote and get two Democrat candidates into the November election,” said Cox spokesman Matt Shupe.
Meanwhile, state Treasurer John Chiang, a Democrat struggling to gain traction in his campaign for governor, dispatched a press release blasting both Newsom and Villaraigosa for “turning to Republicans to advance their own personal gain.”