Updated Nov. 12, 2018.
The California Legislature, controlled by Democrats for decades, will be even bluer when the new class is sworn in next month. Exactly how many more Democrats have been elected is still not certain; it takes a long time to count votes in California. But all signs point toward growing Democratic caucuses in both the Assembly and the Senate, and a supermajority that sidelines Republicans to near irrelevancy.
That means the prevailing tension in the statehouse probably won’t be between Republicans and Democrats—but between different shades of blue. It could make for some counterintuitive outcomes, once the results are tallied, including a Legislature that skews more toward business on some fights.
The biggest shift appears to be heading for the state Senate, which in recent years has been the more liberal of the two houses. It is poised to tick toward the center, with two business-backed Democrats winning Los Angeles-area seats previously held by labor-friendly Dems, and two rural Democrats apparently flipping Republican-held seats in the Central Valley.
“It’s very significant,” said Marty Wilson, executive vice president of the California Chamber of Commerce, which lobbies for major business interests.
“We have an opportunity to have a more profound impact on the Senate.”
Business PACs including Wilson’s poured at least $6 million into electing Democrats Susan Rubio of Baldwin Park and Bob Archuleta of Pico Rivera, who secured solid wins on election night.
Two other Democrats—Melissa Hurtado of Sanger and Assemblywoman Anna Caballero of Salinas—pulled ahead of their Republican opponents Monday, in updated vote counts, apparently assuring the Senate of a Democratic supermajority. With Central Valley districts that stretch through California’s farm belt, the pair, if elected, would bring a different perspective to the Senate Democratic caucus, which is now dominated by representatives from big cities and progressive coastal enclaves. That means not only more potential interest in water and farm policy, but also on how proposals impact inland jobs and health care.
“The issues the Central Valley and other parts of rural California face will get more attention in the caucus because there will be more advocates on behalf of those regions,” said Bob Sanders, a Democratic political consultant who worked on campaigns for Hurtado and Caballero.
Caballero gained a track record as a business-friendly moderate during six years in the state Assembly. Democrats poured more than $4 million into her Senate race against Republican Rob Poythress for a Merced-area seat that had previously been held by Anthony Canella, a moderate Republican. Poythress was backed by $1.9 million from the GOP.
Hurtado is a health care advocate who sits on the Sanger City Council. Democrats spent $2.4 million to help her wrest the Fresno-area from GOP Sen. Andy Vidak of Hanford, who was helped by $428,000 from his party.
“What was different this time were the issues,” said Democratic consultant Lisa Gasperoni, who worked on Hurtado’s campaign.
Instead of focusing on water and agriculture, as most politicians do in the Central Valley, Hurtado emphasized health care access and environmental health, Gasperoni said.
“Those issues were way more potent than I’ve ever seen them.”
Wilson, whose PAC supported Vidak, said the Republican likely suffered from blowback by voters upset by President Trump.
“I think a lot of it was attributable to Trump going out there and railing on caravans,” Wilson said. “It does have a negative impact on California.”
With results still being tallied, Democrats have been cautious about declaring victory. Statewide, at least 4.5 million ballots remained to be counted over the weekend. But late ballots generally skew more liberal, so Democrats may pick up additional seats in the Assembly, where they have already flipped two.
With supermajorities in both chambers, Democrats—in theory—could pass taxes, change the state’s political ethics law, and put constitutional amendments on the ballot without any Republican support. In reality, however, it’s difficult to get all Democrats to agree on controversial proposals, a challenge that could complicate Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom’s agenda, which is ambitious, expensive and could require a tax increase. Many legislators are spooked by the successful recall this year of Democratic Sen. Josh Newman over his vote to increase the gas tax.
Still, with a union-backed governor-elect whose leanings are more progressive than Gov. Jerry Brown’s were, organized labor sees benefits to the growing number of Democrats in Sacramento, even if some of them come with backing from more conservative business interests.
“We’ve got a good situation with a very pro-worker Legislature in both chambers,” said Steve Smith, spokesman for the California Labor Federation, a union group.
But he acknowledged that with more Democrats come more factions—and disagreements that may not fall along traditional fault lines that, for example, pit environmentalists versus the oil industry. The gig economy presents new political issues that may divide Democrats next year, as tech companies will likely push to change a court ruling that limits the use of independent contractors, and labor unions work to hold it intact. Some Democrats who are progressive on environmental issues may skew more business-friendly when it comes to pressure from Silicon Valley or charter schools.
“This is not your grandfather’s labor versus business fight any more,” Smith said. “There are all kinds of layers that didn’t exist 20 years ago.”