‘Valleycrat’ or Mamdani wannabe?: California Democrats are split on how to win swing votes

California Democrats, hungry to retake the U.S. House, all agree they must defeat Central Valley Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao.

But they can’t agree on who his challenger should be.

Months out from a critical primary election, there’s a sharp divide among liberal activists over which Democratic candidate could be capable of toppling Valadao in a conservative-leaning, working-class district where a significant portion of Hispanic voters flipped from supporting former President Joe Biden in 2020 to backing President Donald Trump in 2024. 

The dilemma in the 22nd Congressional District, which will likely be California’s marquee House race this year, embodies the larger tug-of-war within the party over how Democrats can win back the voters they lost in 2024 — by playing to the middle, as successful gubernatorial candidates did in New Jersey and Virginia last fall, or by adopting a progressive brand of economic populism, which fueled Zohran Mamdani’s rise to the New York City mayor’s office.

Political power players in Sacramento and Washington, D.C. — including the massive labor union SEIU California, several California legislators and Emily’s List — have lined up behind Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains. The moderate state legislator can also tout her work as a full-time Medi-Cal physician and wildfire medic in a year that Democrats want to focus on federal health care cuts. She has also voted against her Democratic legislative leadership numerous times and even lost her committee assignments after a spat with the former Assembly speaker over a vote he didn’t like. 

“I’m faithful to my district, not a party or a label,” Bains told CalMatters in an interview. “I didn’t study politics. I studied my community through the lens of being a doctor. And what the Central Valley wants is people who are going to put them first in Washington.”

But a grassroots movement led by the district’s local county Democratic Party chairs is backing Randy Villegas, a political newcomer and college professor who has embraced progressive policy platforms like Medicare for All and price caps on prescriptions and certain procedures. He argues that illnesses like diabetes and cancer don’t discriminate, so universal health care would benefit working-class people regardless of their political persuasion.

“This is not a fight about left versus right. This is a fight above bottom versus top and the people of the Central Valley who’ve been left behind by politicians who sold them out in both political parties,” Villegas told CalMatters. “When it comes to your utilities, your mortgage, those bills don’t ask for your party registration, and neither will this campaign.”

While Bains has refrained from sharing specific policy priorities, Villegas has devoted an entire section of his campaign website to explaining his ambitious plans for how he’ll fight to implement universal family leave and child care, raise the minimum wage to $25 an hour, ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks and introduce congressional term limits.

Villegas has also accepted endorsements from the Working Families Party and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, against the advice of conventional Democratic strategists who warned those could be used against him in attack ads. And he even hired Mamdani’s media consultant, the 26-year-old wunderkind Morris Katz whose advertisements portray Democratic candidates as relatable, rugged neighbors rather than coiffed, sleek professionals.

Both candidates are also leaning into their ethnic and Valley identities to appeal to voters. 

Villegas often talks about how his parents, Mexican immigrants who came to the United States in search of work, inspired him to excel in school, earn a Ph.D. and become a teacher. Villegas was born and raised in Bakersfield and now teaches political science courses at the College of the Sequoias in Visalia. He is also a public school board trustee and owns an auto repair shop with his father. 

Bains, too, highlights her roots in the valley, from her childhood growing up the daughter of Indian immigrants in Delano to completing her residency at a health center serving low-income residents in Bakersfield. She still treats patients on the weekends when not in Sacramento for legislative sessions. Bains is the first Sikh elected to state office in California and the Legislature’s first South Asian woman. 

Which Democrat can win?

California delegates meet next week at the party’s state convention in San Francisco to decide whether and who they’ll endorse in races up and down the 2026 ticket. Both campaigns say they will support whoever wins the top-two primary in June. But with the House majority on the line, and an opportunity to block Trump’s agenda, the stakes are even higher to pick the right candidate.

“We can’t lose,” said Tia Orr, executive director of the powerful Service Employees International Union California, which endorsed Bains. “We have no choice but to win,” Orr said, “and we believe that she’s the one who can win.”

Polling funded by SEIU California last fall showed Bains in a dead heat with Valadao, while Villegas trailed the Republican incumbent. 

Villegas supporters challenge the notion that running a “Valleycrat” — or a Valley Democrat known for taking more conservative positions than their Democratic legislative colleagues on key local industries like oil and agriculture — is the only way to take out Valadao, who has also tried to frame himself as a moderate Republican.

“We keep running these moderate Democrats — I consider myself a moderate Democrat, for the most part — but we keep losing,” said Christian Romo, the chair of the Kern County Democrats and a former high school classmate of Villegas. “Why is that?”

Romo pointed out that Valadao’s most recent challenger, former Assemblymember Rudy Salas, who frequently irked his progressive colleagues in Sacramento, lost twice by considerable margins. Salas famously bucked his party by voting against Gov. Jerry Brown’s plan to raise the gas tax. The only Democrat who has defeated Valadao was former Rep. T.J. Cox, a more left-leaning candidate who rode the blue wave to victory during Trump’s 2018 midterm. 

“People said, ‘Well, Randy has no chance because he’s so progressive,’” Romo said. “Well the only person that beat Valadao was the candidate who went a little more progressive on his ideals.”

Notably, Valadao reclaimed his seat two years later by defeating Cox in a rematch. (Cox has also since pleaded guilty to wire fraud and faces one year in federal prison.)

Villegas and Bains point to different reasons why they should be considered the favorite. 

Villegas, whose fundraising has outpaced Bains’ despite his vow to forgo corporate donations, has about $100,000 more cash on hand than Bains, campaign finance records show. He also received support from 55% of his district’s Democratic delegates in a recent pre-convention vote. Bains received 45%. 

But Bains and her supporters argue that she has the advantage of incumbency and name ID in the district. Her Kern County-based Assembly district overlaps significantly with the most populated portion of the congressional district, meaning she already represents many of the same people.