Furious with Trump, California Democrats plot election strategy in San Francisco

California Democrats this weekend in San Francisco have an opportunity to set the tone in a pivotal election year when their voters could decide control of the U.S. House. 

As Democrats across the country push to harness dissatisfaction with the Trump administration into a transformative November midterm, all eyes are on the nation’s largest state party as it chooses who to support in California’s June primary.

Party leaders are riding high after voters backed Proposition 50, the ballot measure to gerrymander congressional districts in favor of Democrats. The three-day gathering gives it an early opportunity to build on that momentum for the upcoming elections.

The state’s marquee race this year is the one to succeed outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom, a national Democratic star with presidential aspirations who terms out at the end of this year. But don’t expect a rousing party endorsement there: With nearly 10 candidates, it’s unlikely any of them will attract enough of the 3,500 expected Democratic delegates to secure the nod. Newsom himself won’t attend, a spokesperson said.

Instead, one of the biggest questions will be whether California Democrats continue to anoint establishment candidates — those with backing from elected party leaders, high-dollar donors and powerful lobbying groups — or if political newcomers can convert their grassroots support from the party into actual endorsements.

For years, young Democrats in particular have urged the party to embrace bolder, more progressive ideas such as universal health coverage, tuition-free college, banning the sale of arms to Israel and eschewing the Democratic Party’s longstanding deference to seniority and incumbency through term limits. The brashness of the second Trump administration has given new urgency to those demands as the Democratic base tires of what activists call a milquetoast “radical civility” approach. 

“The fact that we’re in a national emergency means there’s no time for incrementalism or moderation,” said Heidi Hall, a Nevada County supervisor and the first Democrat to announce she is challenging incumbent GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley to represent a competitive district east of Sacramento. 

“Any Democrat in office who’s not willing to fight this hard should get out, should step aside and let someone else in who is going to fight it,” Hall said. “Or they’re going to be complicit in what’s happening.”

Kiley has since said he will run for Congress again, but not in his current district, which has changed dramatically since the passage of Prop. 50.

Early signs suggest there’s at least some appetite for new blood in California’s overwhelmingly Democratic congressional delegation of 52 members. In January, local delegates blocked five sitting Democratic congressmembers — Reps. Ami Bera, John Garamendi, Doris Matsui, Brad Sherman and Mike Thompson — from securing endorsements that incumbents typically receive by default. Those members instead have had to court delegates to earn the party’s nod as they face challenges from further left-leaning, and mostly younger, candidates. 

And while Thompson, Garamendi and Sherman were able to amass enough support from local delegates in a pre-convention endorsement vote, Matsui must continue seeking support at the convention. Bera was iced out of an endorsement entirely since he was unable to secure even a simple majority of votes from delegates in his district.

“People on the ground are tired of insider politics like this,” Hall said. “They want to be heard and they want the opportunity to choose the candidate they want.”

Hall’s team spent more than a month calling delegates and gathering petition signatures to deny Bera an automatic endorsement. She criticized the seven-term congressman from Elk Grove, who represents the Sacramento-based 6th Congressional District, for jumping into the race in the neighboring 3rd District where she is running after the new Prop. 50 maps made the seat far more favorable to Democrats. 

In a preliminary endorsement vote, Hall placed third behind Bera and fellow grassroots candidate Chris Bennett, who also switched districts in November.

Another endorsement fight to watch is in the 22nd Congressional District, where two Central Valley Democrats have embraced different tactics to win swing votes as they vie for the chance to topple incumbent GOP Rep. David Valadao, a top target for Democrats nationally this cycle. 

Randy Villegas, a community college professor, Visalia school board trustee and political newcomer, is hoping to win his party’s endorsement over establishment-favorite Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, who is endorsed by the powerful Service Employees International Union of California.

Villegas is campaigning on the economic populist message popularized by progressives such as U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, while Bains, a physician from Kern County, portrays herself as a moderate “Valleycrat” who isn’t afraid to buck party leadership. 

Winning the party endorsement over the incumbent or establishment favorite will still be an uphill battle, said Mai Vang, the progressive Sacramento city council member challenging Rep. Matsui in the 7th Congressional District. To her, the party’s endorsements signify more than just an infusion of campaign money and volunteer door-knockers. 

“It’s about the future of this country and what kind of Democratic Party we want to be moving forward,” Vang said. “In this moment, we have to ask ourselves, ‘What type of leaders do we want to send to the halls of Congress to fight this authoritarian administration?’”

Who will Democrats support for governor?

One race in which there will almost certainly be no endorsement is the wide-open governor’s race.

It’s typically hard to secure the party’s endorsement in any race without an incumbent, requiring a candidate to get 60% of delegates’ votes. This weekend, a whopping eight Democrats running for governor will give speeches before delegates on Saturday — and that doesn’t even include all the Democrats in the race.

Those vying for the endorsement include former Rep. Katie Porter, a consumer attorney who made her name in Congress challenging corporate executives; Rep. Eric Swalwell, a former prosecutor known for playing a role in the second Trump impeachment; and the self-funding billionaire Tom Steyer, who has poured some of his hedge fund-gained wealth into environmental activism. 

Lagging them in campaign cash and polls are former Attorney General Xavier Becerra, former state Controller Betty Yee, state public schools chief Tony Thurmond and former Assemblymember Ian Calderon.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan was the latest to enter the race last month, missing a party deadline to seek the endorsement. But the moderate, who is not well known outside of the Bay Area, has quickly raised millions of dollars in campaign donations from tech executives like Google co-founder Sergey Brin and Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, making him a formidable opponent. 

Still, all the candidates will work the crowds this weekend. The gathering, which will feature both official work like voter registration training and boozy schmooze-fests hosted by interest groups and campaigns, represents the highest concentration of the most active party loyalists in the state. It’s a chance for the candidates to win the attention of potential organizers, volunteers and benefactors.

Failing to secure a sizable number of delegates could ramp up pressure on some candidates to drop out, as poll after poll points to the wide field of Democrats splitting voters’ support and putting Republicans in the apparent lead. In California’s top-two primary, the two candidates who receive the most votes move on to the general election, regardless of party, leading some Democrats to be anxious that two Republicans could advance.

For months, polling has shown the top two Republican candidates, former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, besting most Democrats. In the latest poll by Emerson College, published Wednesday, the top-polling Democrat was Swalwell, with 14% of likely voters supporting him. He was sandwiched between top-polling Hilton and Bianco, meaning the three are statistically tied. No other Democrat got more than 10% of surveyed voters’ support.

Party Chair Rusty Hicks dismissed the concerns that there are too many little-known Democrats in the race, and would not say whether he or the party would intervene to prompt candidates to drop out and consolidate support.

“I’m committed to doing what’s required to ensure we win in November of 2026, period,” he said. “The reality is, by the time you get to the end of March and beginning of April, you’re likely to see the field naturally thin itself out.”