How 9 California Democrats could sabotage their party’s race for governor

The nine Democrats vying for governor in California’s primary could win the race – for the Republicans – if some don’t drop out, the state’s Democratic party chair says. 

As of Wednesday, all nine had chosen to ignore California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks’ warning.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election in November, regardless of party. With so many Democrats potentially splitting the vote and only two Republican front-runners — essentially tied in the polls — splitting the GOP vote, the chances of the Democrats being shut out are real. 

The candidates, however, seem unfazed. 

Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter pointed to her position in the polls (statistically tied for lead with two other Democrats and two Republicans). Former state controller Betty Yee was buoyed by some support from party delegates at a convention last month. 

Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, polling at 2%, cast his campaign as bucking “political elites” — and said by favoring those with higher polling numbers, party leaders were “essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out.” 

Meanwhile, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa singled out former state attorney general Xavier Becerra, a fellow Latino candidate, to drop out under the rationale that doing so would reduce the chances of two Republicans advancing. Becerra responded on social media that Villaraigosa had never won statewide office before, but “I have—and I’ll do it again.”

Whatever their justifications, seven of the nine Democrats have already met Friday’s deadline to file the paperwork that officially puts their names on the June 2 primary election ballot. The rest were either expected to file later in the week or issued statements suggesting they were still in the race, raising the  possibility of an all-Republican gubernatorial election this fall. 

What are the odds?

Concern has been percolating for months, prompting Democratic data guru Paul Mitchell to set up a website with the latest polling data to run statistical models predicting the chances of an all-Republican general election. 

It’s swung anywhere between 10 and 18% in recent weeks. On Tuesday longshot Republican contender Jon Slavet withdrew from the race, further consolidating support among the two GOP frontrunners, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton. The chances of Bianco and Hilton advancing shot up on Mitchell’s model, to 28%. 

Mitchell explained in an interview that those chances are highest if Bianco and Hilton remain mostly tied. If one of them pulls ahead, the general election would likely be between the leading Republican and a leading Democrat, he said. The latter could be Porter, climate activist and investor Tom Steyer or Bay Area Rep. Eric Swalwell.

Some insiders have wanted party leaders like Hicks to more forcefully pressure candidates to drop out. But others say it would be inappropriate for him to influence the primary and acknowledged several candidates have longstanding relationships among party power-players — like Yee, who once served as party vice chair. 

‘Let the voters decide’

Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio argues the state should get rid of the top-two primary system instead, and said it’s undemocratic of party leaders to call on anyone to drop out. He noted half of likely voters in a recent survey by the Public Policy Institute of California responded that they haven’t been paying much attention to the race, which lower-polling candidates say means they still have a shot.

“It will happen naturally,” Maviglio said, of the need for Democrats to narrow the field. “Let the voters decide.”

Hicks last month insisted that candidates falling behind in campaign cash and the polls would naturally leave the race after the party’s convention. But delegates struggled to pick a favorite to endorse, and nobody dropped out. 

On Tuesday, Hicks issued an unusual public admonishment in the form of an open letter, urging candidates not to put their names on the ballot “if you do not have a viable path to make it to the General Election.” For those who choose to remain but can’t make “meaningful progress toward winning the Primary Election,” he asked them to drop out and endorse another Democrat by April 15, about a week before elections officials begin mailing ballot information guides to voters.

Planned Parenthood, which has not yet endorsed in the race, followed with a similar statement Tuesday asking candidates to reconsider their campaigns. 

Considering the options

Hicks wouldn’t say whether he had contacted any individual candidates directly. In an interview with CalMatters Tuesday, he said he still believes candidates will quit voluntarily. But he said it’s possible he’ll intervene further if the race remains so open in April. 

“California Democrats are prepared to do what is required to ensure that we have a strong candidate headed into the general election,” he said. 

If a contender drops out later after ballot guides are mailed to voters, having their name on the ballot could still siphon votes away from other Democrats, Hicks said. 

“Every name on the ballot will get some number of votes… Now, is that one or 2%, or is that 6 or 7%?” he said. “I would prefer that they not take any votes from those candidates that were more viable. I can’t necessarily dictate that.”

One figure who could tip the scales but has declined to do so is Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

“I honestly haven’t taken a look” at the contenders, he told reporters this week. “It’s been hard, I think, to focus on that race … When I’m out in the community, people aren’t talking to me about it which is interesting this late, just weeks and weeks before early voting. As a consequence I’m not directly as engaged as perhaps I need to be.”

Counties begin mailing out ballots May 4.

CalMatters political reporter Maya Miller contributed to this report.