In summary
Kiley’s much-anticipated decision comes after Prop. 50 turned the two-term congressman’s current district solidly Democratic and left him with no easy path to reelection.
After months of suspense, deliberation and a game-show-style process of elimination, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley has finally chosen a district in which to seek reelection.
The two-term congressman from Roseville announced this week that he will file paperwork to run for the Sacramento-area 6th Congressional District after California’s Proposition 50 dramatically reshaped his current district into a solid pickup for Democrats.
If Kiley wants to keep his job, the former state assemblymember — who morphed from a more traditional center-right Republican to a Trump-endorsed firebrand — will have to defy the odds. The new 6th is left-leaning – former Vice President Kamala Harris would have won the district by more than six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, according to data from California Target Book, a nonpartisan and subscriber-based election guide.
And while Kiley appears to have a clear path to the November ballot and a sizable fundraising advantage, his Democratic opponents will benefit greatly from the widespread voter discontent with the Trump administration and congressional Republicans, especially among independents.
“He will lose decisively, unless something very odd happens,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist in California who co-founded the anti-Trump Lincoln Project.
Challenges ahead
In a social media post on Monday, Kiley said he decided to run in the 6th District even though his team had “favorable polling” that showed he could win the safe Republican 5th Congressional District, currently held by long-time Rep. Tom McClintock.
Although Kiley stressed that he chose the more Democratic-leaning district because it included his home turf of Placer County, he almost certainly considered the tricky optics and logistics of mounting a primary challenge against a long-time Republican congressional colleague like McClintock.
“While this will be a more challenging race, I believe we can build a winning coalition for common sense,” Kiley wrote on social media. “Thanks to all for your encouragement and patience.”
Kiley’s spokesperson, John Pirsos, declined CalMatters interview requests.
Kiley’s first hurdle will be prevailing in the nonpartisan primary in June. In that race, he faces a splintered Democratic field that includes Dr. Richard Pan, a pediatrician and one-time state Senate colleague of Kiley’s; Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho; Lauren Babb-Tomlinson, who leads public affairs for Planned Parenthood; and Martha Guerrero, the mayor of West Sacramento.
As the sole viable Republican running against a sea of Democrats, Kiley stands a good chance of becoming one of the top two candidates and advancing to the general election on Nov. 3.
And unlike the crowded field of Democrats, who will race to one-up each other in spending with hopes of gaining an edge over the rest of the field, Kiley should emerge from June with a fuller war chest ready to unleash against his opponent in November. Kiley reported far more cash on hand than any of his Democratic opponents — $2 million at the end of last year, according to the latest federal filings.
Despite the clear path to a spot on the November ballot, Kiley still faces the same glaring challenge as Republicans across the country — the unpopularity of the Trump administration and a GOP-controlled Congress. A recent Reuters-Ipsos poll pegged the president’s approval rating at 39%.
“It’s not a perfect Democratic seat,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican strategist and redistricting expert, speaking about the 6th District. “The problem is the overall atmosphere. Republicans are going to have a tough time in these midterms.”
From 2020 election skeptic to GOP critic
In the last decade, Kiley has reinvented his political brand to fit the political mood of the moment. He transformed from someone who voiced support for then-Ohio governor John Kasich in the 2016 presidential election to a 2020 election skeptic who wouldn’t say whether former President Joe Biden’s victory was legitimate.
Early in his Sacramento-based political career, Kiley pointedly distanced himself from national politics and President Donald Trump. He offered himself as a more traditional, moderate conservative who would unite California’s center-right.
“I’m trying to provide leadership for our party here in California, which will look different than leadership in Washington,” Kiley told CapRadio in 2020. “I try to stay in my lane and focus on state issues.”
Kiley endeared himself to the California Republican base during the COVID-19 pandemic by constantly and vociferously antagonizing Gov. Gavin Newsom, going so far as to write a 234-page treatise on why he felt Newsom deserved to be recalled.
He even made a longshot bid for the governorship himself in 2021 as California Republicans sought unsuccessfully to recall Newsom over what they said was his mishandling of the pandemic. According to election returns, Kiley emerged with less than 4% of support from voters who indicated a preferred replacement candidate.
Softening his tone
Since the Prop. 50 redistricting, Kiley has noticeably moderated his tone and made direct, if largely symbolic, appeals to independent voters.
Kiley introduced a bill in the House to ban mid-decade redistricting and called on Speaker Mike Johnson numerous times to bring it up for a vote. As one of the few Republicans who still came to Washington during the 43-day government shutdown last fall, he earned himself a New York Times profile, plus an extended interview on the Times’ flagship podcast, “The Daily,”.
Recently, he bucked the House GOP and voted with Democrats to cancel Trump’s emergency tariffs on Canada, even though he explained that his decision was more a protest of the calendar gimmicks that Johnson used to bypass congressional authority.
But despite those efforts, Madrid, the GOP strategist, predicted voters will be skeptical of his recent moderation.
“He is trying to ingratiate himself to a new district, but he’s too far down the road,” Madrid said.
“The sad Greek tragedy of Kevin Kiley is he’s more educated and he knows better. He’s always known better. He’s known that this road was not what he believed,” Madrid said. “He is not a populist. He’s not a nationalist. He was a classic conservative.”
