In summary
The company gave Becerra’s campaign $39,200 just days before the primary while giving the former attorney general a three-in-four chance of winning the office.
Online prediction marketplace company Kalshi cut gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra’s campaign a check for $39,200 last Friday, just days before voters decide which two candidates move on to the general election in November.
Meanwhile, the company’s marketplace gives Becerra a 74% chance of becoming governor in November as of Monday afternoon.
The timing of Kalshi’s contribution to Becerra, its second-largest to a state candidate on record, raises questions about conflicts of interest: Should a betting marketplace donate to candidates while its own customers are wagering on candidates in the same election?
“It does seem especially problematic when a betting market is giving large contributions to any candidate that they are holding betting markets for,” said Trent Lange, executive director of the California Clean Money Campaign.
Kalshi declined to comment on the contribution or the potential conflict of interest.
Lange said part of the problem is betting markets can change the public’s perception of candidates even though there’s not complete transparency about how the odds are calculated. And it becomes extra problematic when the market company makes clear which candidates it prefers.
“We do know that people often look to where candidates stand on the betting markets to see how viable people think they are and it may actually change many people’s votes,” he said.
The campaign didn’t respond to direct questions about the Kalshi contribution or if its active bet on his chances of winning represent a conflict of interest.
“Californians from every walk of life are lining up to support Xavier Becerra,” said Jonathan Underland, a spokesperson for the Becerra campaign, in a written statement.
Kalshi, founded in 2018, has dramatically increased its political spending in California since the start of last year when the company first reported contributions to state candidates and lobbying state government.
Since the second quarter of 2025, Kalshi has contributed $115,000 to state candidates, including Becerra, and $100,000 to the state Democratic Party. It also spent $72,000 to push its point of view to legislators, the attorney general and the governor.
Kalshi started an advocacy group with Crypto.com, Coinbase and Robinhood called the “Coalition for Prediction Markets” late last year, run by former Democratic staffers. The group registered with the state to lobby for the first time earlier this year.
Kalshi, along with the coalition, lobbied on a bill to direct the attorney general to investigate payouts on a prediction market of at least $5,000 if the outcome was a matter of national security and a bill aimed at preventing children from gambling online.
Both bills are still working their way through the Assembly and disclosure forms don’t say which way the company lobbied.
One of Kalshi’s major competitors, Polymarket, has not yet reported any state campaign contributions or lobbying expenditures.
