In L.A. mayor’s race, Karen Bass is vulnerable but she’ll be tough to topple

The announcement by investment banker and former schools chief Austin Beutner that he will challenge Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for re-election poses several questions about the state of politics in America’s second-largest city.

Among them: Is Bass vulnerable to a respectable opponent? If so, what kind of challenger might give her the most trouble? And how, if at all, does the long shadow of President Donald Trump affect the parameters of this race?

Let’s take those in order:

Yes, Bass is vulnerable. Public and private polls place her approval rating somewhere in the low 40s, against a disapproval rating in the high 40s — which means she’s about 10 points under water, a danger zone for an incumbent. 

The good news for her is that her disapproval hasn’t risen above 50% in any poll, so she hasn’t alienated a majority of voters. 

It also bears noting that her standing comes at a time when many political figures are held in low esteem. 

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom typically tops 50% since he stepped up his attacks on Trump. The president, for point of reference, is deeply unpopular, with disapprovals outweighing approvals by 18% — shocking even for a leader who generally receives low marks from Americans. 

Bass’ numbers are nowhere near alarming enough to count her out, but they do invite challengers. For months, speculation has mostly centered around businessman Rick Caruso, who Bass beat in 2022. If Caruso gets in, it will set up a rematch of a race in which he spent more than $100 million of his own money, only to lose to Bass by 10 points. 

Private polling has shown Caruso potentially starting off a bit better this time, but not by much. Many voters don’t like that he’s a developer or that he registered as a Democrat just in time to run in 2022. 

Even Caruso’s attempts to challenge Bass over her response to the January wildfires were complicated by his record during that devastating event. Caruso’s private fire crews protected his mall in the Palisades while allowing structures around them to burn — not a great look for a would-be mayor for all Angelenos.

Beutner’s main contribution to the campaign so far may be to crowd out Caruso. It’s hard to imagine there’s room in a Los Angeles election for two rich white guys. Indeed, there’s reason to wonder whether there’s even room for one. And with Senator Alex Padilla’s announcement last week that he won’t run for governor, Caruso may have a better opening in that race. 

As the campaign moves forward, a look at the issues and personalities will help voters make up their minds in this race, but for now, the questions are more structural than personal. 

Which brings us to this one: What kind of challenger might pose the biggest threat to Bass?

People outside Los Angeles undoubtedly imagine that a liberal, Black woman mayor would be vulnerable only to a conservative, someone who could hold the center while she drew support from the left. 

Those people would be wrong.

Los Angeles is among the most liberal cities in America. If anything, Bass may be more conservative than the city’s political center. Given that, there’s been talk of possible liberal challengers to her. The popularity of Democratic Socialists in several council districts and New York mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s recent victory are reminders that the left has a solid and growing hold in America’s urban centers. 

For his part, Beutner resists attempts to categorize his candidacy as fitting into one lane or another. In an interview last week he emphasized he is seeking the office in response to what he senses as broad disappointment in Bass’ leadership. 

He’s arguing for an all-out commitment to building more housing, an issue that might put him to Bass’ left. To liberal housing advocates he offers a construction boom and, one hopes, a burst in supply that might bring down rents. 

But he also talks about improving public safety, security and cleanliness, issues that might appeal to more conservative voters.  

That’s going to take some footwork, but Beutner, a former superintendent of Los Angeles public schools, is not to be taken lightly. (Disclosure: I worked as an editor at the L.A. Times when Beutner was its publisher in 2014-15.)

One recent private poll found just 23% of those interviewed had an impression of Beutner. Coaxed by a description of him as a “Democrat who gets things done” and given a few other tidbits from his resume, they broke in his direction, suggesting a  possible campaign path. However, they did so when fed a positive description of him and his achievements. That’s a favor the Bass campaign will not grant him.

Which brings us to the final question: How is this campaign affected by Trump?

The mayor’s race will appear on the ballot next June and, if no candidate gets a majority in that round, the runoff will be in November. That places it in competition with the Congressional midterms — hotly contested races sure to place Trump in the center of the conversation.

That, too, probably helps Bass, because Trump has made it clear he doesn’t respect the mayor. And the electorate in Los Angeles has made it just as clear that it has no use for him.

Ever since ICE began waging its theatrical and overbearing raids in Los Angeles last summer, Bass has risen to oppose the president, challenging him in court and in public appearances. 

For his part, Trump has called Los Angeles a “trash heap” and disparaged Bass as being “not very competent.” And Stephen Miller, Trump’s architect of the ICE raids, has accused Bass of siding with the “illegal alien invasion” of California. 

In normal times, a mayor might suffer under such withering criticism from Washington. But as much as Trump nationalizes this campaign, he helps Bass; he’s not hurting her. 

The recent vote on Proposition 50 — which authorized redistricting California Congressional seats to counter Texas’ efforts to help Trump in the midterms — shows more than 64% of Californians supporting it.

That’s a big number. But in Los Angeles, the yes vote was 74%, a staggering majority and entirely dedicated to thwarting Trump. As those numbers prove, voters here detest Trump. He has a way of crowding out other conversations. 

If Los Angeles sees Bass as a bulwark against the president, it may be hard for Beutner, or any other candidate, to find traction — especially if they appear on the same ballot voters will use to register unhappiness with a president they loathe.