Californians are in a sour mood but don’t want to change the political status quo

Californians are in a sour mood these days, and for good reason.

The state’s economy is stuck in neutral with scant job creation since the end of the COVID pandemic. Major sectors, such as high technology, are experiencing layoffs and job shrinkage and California is tied with two other states for the nation’s highest unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, Californians’ cost of living — especially housing, utilities and fuel — has climbed sharply, more than 100% since 2000, while personal income, adjusted for inflation, has actually declined fractionally since 2020.

A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California reflects the angst.

“Majorities of California adults (54%) and likely voters (52%) say the state is headed in the wrong direction,” PPIC found. “This belief is held by nearly all Republicans (94%) and a majority of independents (55%), compared to one in three Democrats (32%).”

PPIC continues, “Californians are much more pessimistic about economic conditions over the next year, with seven in ten adults (71%) and likely voters (73%) as well six in ten or more across parties (61% Democrats, 90% Republicans, 72% independents) expecting bad economic times for the state.”

If Californians are dissatisfied with the present and sour on the future, one might assume that they would express that negative frame of mind by rejecting the state’s political status quo in favor of candidates who promise change.

However, with voting by mail beginning in a few days, the Democratic Party that has dominated California politics for the last three decades can comfortably expect to maintain — or even increase — its hegemony.

All of the statewide offices, including the governorship, will remain in Democratic hands. Polls by PPIC and UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies have found Democrat Xavier Becerra with a double-digit lead over Republican Steve Hilton for the governorship.

Democrats will retain supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature and probably gain a few congressional seats, thanks to gerrymandered districts that voters adopted last year to help neutralize Republican gerrymanders in other states.

A handful of legislative and congressional districts are in play but the macro results favoring Democrats are certain. Republican candidates, from Hilton down, are handicapped by low voter registration and Californians’ deep disdain for President Donald Trump. Just 27% of California voters approve of Trump’s performance, according to the Berkeley IGS poll.

The most uncertain — and therefore most interesting — aspects of this year’s election are a very close battle for the mayoralty of Los Angeles, pitting veteran incumbent Karen Bass against a left-leaning city council member, Nithya Raman, a few Democrat vs. Democrat duels for congressional seats, and some polarizing ballot measures.

Five of the 14 statewide ballot measures relate to taxes, including two that would increase them and three that would make increases less likely.

The biggest and most controversial is Proposition 40, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of about 200 billionaires, with proceeds mostly going to shore up healthcare services.

Prop. 40 is sponsored by a healthcare worker union and generally draws support from some, but not all, Democratic political figures and unions. Meanwhile, billionaires are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to oppose Prop. 40 and pass two other measures, Proposition 41 and Proposition 42, that would undermine Prop. 40’s implementation if it survives the election.

Until recently, Prop. 40 was ahead in the polls, although barely. More recent surveys found that its base was eroding as the massive opposition campaign cranked up, so the result is very much in doubt. And even if Prop. 40 wins, it still could be neutralized by the passage of Props. 41 and 42.

Prop. 40 exemplifies the nation’s social and political polarization and its outcome, whatever that may be, will reverberate for years to come.