In summary
California voters are deciding whether Republicans will hold onto seats they flipped in 2024 and whether business-backed groups can help elect more moderate Democrats.
The results of Tuesday’s election aren’t expected to topple the Democratic supermajority in either house of the state Legislature, but they will offer a window into two major questions: Can Republicans hold on to the legislative seats they flipped in 2024? And, will Big Tech and big business succeed in electing pragmatic moderates over more liberal Democrats?
Republicans are fighting to hold onto the modest gains they made in 2024, which party leaders attributed to their message resonating particularly with Latino voters. Republican-aligned independent expenditure committees are spending big to keep them.
It’s been a record year for outside spending by independent expenditure committees, led by Grow California, funded by billionaire investors Chris Larsen and Tim Draper, and California Leads, funded by Meta and Google. Both groups say they hope to be a counterforce to unions, which have responded with millions in election spending this year.
Assembly
All 80 seats in the state Assembly are up for election to two-year terms this year. Sixty-seven assembly members are running for re-election, and there are 13 open seats.
Here’s a look at some key races:
Assembly District 7
Republican incumbent Josh Hoover faces retired teacher and superintendent Amy Slavensky, a Democrat, for this seat representing areas of northeast Sacramento County, including Citrus Heights, Folsom and Rancho Cordova. Independent expenditure committees spent close to $3.5 million supporting Hoover and opposing Slavensky. Hoover’s supporters include business groups, cardrooms and the Legislative Action PAC, a business-backed committee formed by Republican strategists.
Registration: Democratic 37%, Republican 32%, no party preference 22%
Assembly District 12
Marin County Supervisor Eric Lucan is going head-to-head with Rohnert Park City Councilmember Jackie Elward in this expensive Democratic showdown to represent all of Marin County and about two-thirds of Sonoma County. Grow California has spent more than $2.5 million supporting Lucan and has continued to spend heavily even after he asked them to stop at the beginning of October.
Registration: Democratic 58%, Republican 15%, no party preference 19%
Assembly District 27
Former Merced mayor and attorney Mike Murphy, a Republican, is battling Democratic Fresno County Supervisor Brian Pacheco in this open seat vacated by a Democrat. Republicans are targeting the majority-Latino district encompassing parts of Merced, Madera and Fresno counties, which President Donald Trump carried in 2024 by 2.7%.
Registration: Democratic 40%, Republican 28%, no party preference 24%
Assembly District 36
Republican Incumbent Jeff Gonzalez is trying to hold on to the seat he flipped in 2024. His challenger is Democratic Imperial mayor Ida Obeso-Martinez, a nurse practitioner. The district covers Imperial County and a large part of Riverside County, as well as portions of the eastern Coachella Valley. It went for Trump in 2024 by 1.4%.
Registration: Democratic 41%, Republican 29%, no party preference 23%
Assembly District 47
Democrat Leila Namvar, a public arts analyst for the city of Indio, brings the financial backing of the Democratic Party to her challenge to Republican incumbent Greg Wallis. The purple district combines Republican-leaning areas near Redlands with the Democratic enclave of Palm Springs. Independent expenditure committees funded by Google, Meta and oil and gas companies have spent millions supporting Wallis and attacking Namvar.
Registration: Democratic 39%, Republican 33%, no party preference 20%
Assembly District 58
The most heated race so far this cycle is between Republican incumbent Leticia Castillo and Democratic challenger Clarissa Cervantes, a Riverside city councilmember. The two are back for a rematch after Castillo flipped the traditionally Democratic seat in 2024. The district includes parts of San Bernardino and Riverside counties. Attack ads have targeted Cervantes’ prior DUI arrests and claims about drug use, while a Democratic strategist’s X post about an old adult entertainment site run by Castillo rocked Sacramento politicos.
Registration: Democratic 42%, Republican 27%, no party preference 23%
Assembly District 68
Perhaps the most expensive race this year is between two millennial Democrats on the Santa Ana City Council: David Penaloza and Jessie Lopez in a district that includes parts of Anaheim, Orange and Santa Ana. Penaloza, the more moderate candidate, is endorsed by the California Democratic Party and supported by the new tech-backed PACs, while Lopez is backed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and the Working Families Party. Outside groups have spent $9.1 million since the primary, according to the California Target Book.
Registration: Democratic 48%, Republican 22%, no party preference 24%
Senate
Half of the 40 Senate seats are up for election to four-year terms. Eleven senators are up for re-election, and several members of the Assembly are running in the nine contests without an incumbent.
Senate District 16
Democratic incumbent Melissa Hurtado is spending big from her campaign committee to fend off a challenge from Republican Guillermo Gonzalez, a small business owner and a former aide to Republican Rep. David Valadao. The Central Valley district includes portions of Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern counties and went for Trump in 2024 by 8.9%. Legislative Action California, funded by Google, AT&T and oil and gas companies, has spent millions supporting Gonzalez.
Registration: Democratic: 39%, Republican: 29%, no party preference: 24%
Senate District 24
In the battle to succeed Sen. Ben Allen, Brian Goldsmith, an entrepreneur and former senior adviser for the pro-Israel advocacy group Democratic Majority for Israel, faces fellow Democrat John Erickson, a West Hollywood city councilmember and former vice president of Planned Parenthood Los Angeles. The coastal Los Angeles district includes Malibu and Santa Monica. This Senate race has seen the most outside spending — $8.5 million — since the primary, mostly for Goldsmith, according to the California Target Book.
Registration: Democratic: 49%, Republican: 21%, no party preference: 23%
Senate District 26
Two Democrats are vying to replace departing progressive Sen. María Elena Durazo in this deep blue Los Angeles district. Community college trustee Sara Hernandez faces Sarah Rascón, a planning commissioner for East Los Angeles. Outside special interest groups spent nearly $7.4 million, almost all of it to support Hernandez; only $419,000 went toward Rascón.
Registration: Democratic: 60%, Republican: 11%, no party preference: 23%
Senate District 40
Democrat Mara Elliott, a former San Diego city attorney, is competing to replace termed out Senate GOP Leader Brian Jones in the San Diego-area district. She faces Republican challenger and former Assembly candidate Kriste Bruce-Lane. Elliott is overwhelmingly backed by Democratic power brokers and labor groups, who have spent more than $1 million to support her and oppose Bruce-Lane, who’s affiliated with conservative advocacy group Reform California.
Registration: Democratic: 35%, Republican: 33%, no party preference: 24%
